So a lot of you will know that I regularly post guides and tips about match betting, However since the same questions always come up in the comments, I decided to make one big, very thorough Mega Guide in order to eliminate as many doubts as possible for you guys. Like I said before, This guide is a handy way to sort out a month's rent for 5 or 6 hours work, so I really hope it can be of use to someone. Anyway, Here it is:
PART 1: MATCH BETTING EXPLAINED; HOW TO MAKE £500 IN 5/6 HOURS
Having done my research and having been able to turn a really nice profit in such a short time, I wanted to make a short guide to eliminate people's doubts and simplify things a little. Since it really doesn't take a lot of time to hit that £500 profit mark, it's a shame not to try it out. Anyway, Here it goes:
I was sceptical as hell about Match betting because a friend showed me the Facebook groups and it just looked like a giant gambling pyramid scheme. It turns out there is a decent chunk of change to be made from it, you just need to follow the guides and never ever actually gamble with your money.
Never ever Gamble? Yes That's right, you are going to be using Gambling sites to complete the various offers, but the whole idea behind match betting is that every time you "make a bet", you match that same bet on the exchange. So for example, if I bet £10 for Real Madrid to Win on the Bookie Site at odds of 2.5, I then also make a Matched bet on the Exchange (This is a separate site such as Smarkets or Betfair) where I bet for Real Madrid not to win at odds of 2.5 (or as close as I can get to those odds). In this way I am covered in all outcomes, and it allows me to fulfill the requirements of the bookies offer (For example Bet £10 and get £30 in Free bets)
What's the difference between the Bookie Site and the Exchange? On the Exchange Site you are basically being the Bookie and just like a Bookie, you have liability. If I bet £10 and my bet wins at odds of 2.5 then I win £25, so the bookies liability for this bet is £15, the extra money that they would have to give me if I win. There are calculators on the Match betting sites which you can use to calculate what Liability you need to enter on the exchange each time you make your matched bet. There is also software to help you find what games have the closest odds on both the bookies and the exchange, which is very important.
What do I do when I get my free bets? It's the same process again, You find a game that has very close odds on both the bookies and the exchange ( You can do this by eye or by using odds matching software. A good site with this software is called OddsMonkey). Only this time when you use the calculator to work out your liability, you will set it to "Free bets SNR" so it knows you are not using real money. It will tell you how much Liability to use in the exchange and off you go.
How does this make me money? The fact that you have a free bet to use is what makes you money, For example a £30 free bet at odds of 5.5 in the bookies will win you £135 (30x 4.5, because the original free bet stake of £30 is not returned to you). Now let's say that the closest odds I can find in the Exchange for the same game are 6.0, I will need a liability of £112.50 to match my free bet in the bookies ( I use the calculator on oddsmonkey to work this out)
£135- 112.50 = £22.50 in Profit.
Alternatively if my bet on the exchange wins, I will lose the free bet of £30 (but it's not actually a loss to me because It's not real money) and I will win £22.50 on the exchange. Either way, I make a Profit of £22.50
What about providing card details? You can use a separate, virtual bank account for all your match betting, In this way your main banking information is not shared with any of the sites you sign up to. A good one to use is Monzo, the app is easy to use and it only takes 5 minutes to open an account. It's free to open an account and last I checked they actually have a referral scheme where you get £5 if you sign up through a referral link.
Non Referral here: https://monzo.com/
Where can I learn to do it? There are some sites that you have to pay a monthly subscription to but I found one called Team Profit that is free and has a full guide of all the different offers you can complete.
I worked my way down through the list of offers, nice and handy, and having completed 20 offers at 15 minutes per offer, I came out at £470 for 5 hours total of work.
If you are new to this site and are opening a free account I would really appreciate if you use my Referral (£10)
Here is the non referral link to the page with all the offers: https://www.teamprofit.com/welcome-offers-list
TLDR: You do not need to "gamble" to match bet, in fact by definition, the bet you make is "matched" on the exchange, so it is not a gamble in any sense.

PART 2: MAKING £500-£1000 EVERY MONTH.
You may sometimes see people commenting saying they have made a lot more money since finishing the welcome offers, £1000-£1500 a month and such, but never saying exactly how...
Personally I have made a lot more profit every month since I finished the welcome offers, Usually around the £1000 per month mark.
People say that Match betting drys up once you finish the welcome offers but this is simply not true, it's a matter of being more organised and checking your email for new offers, while also checking the Reload Offers section on Team Profit every morning (Takes literally 5 minutes)
Below is an Example from last month where I made £300 in one week. Bare in mind that the amount you make weekly will vary with the amount of sport that is on, but as long as there's sport, you will always be able to earn. This example is simply to show you the potential Match Betting has long after you've completed the Welcome offers:
Here's exactly how I did it:
Coral: Money back as a free bet up to £50 if your team is ahead in the first half but doesn't win the match in the end: Matched 5 Premier League games, 3 were successful. I received three £50 free bets which I matched and turned into £130 profit risk free. £130 in 30 minutes
William Hill: Money Back as Cash if your horse comes 2nd- 2 of the 6 horses I matched came 2nd, I was also able to make a profit by just matching the bets because my odds were higher on the bookies side by using the Happy Hour odds (between 12pm-1pm, 3 horses with enhanced odds) and also the 3 daily bet boosts on Horse raising( to boost my odds on another 3 horses). £20 in 5 minutes
Paddy Power: Money Back up to £10 if Horse comes 2nd 3rd or 4th, Matched the horse with the lowest odds and sure enough it came 3rd, got my £10 free bet. £8 in 3 minutes
Skybet: Money Back as cash up to £10 if Horse comes 2nd 3rd or 4th, Matched the horse with the lowest odds and sure enough it came 3rd, got my £10. £9.50 in 3 minutes
Skybet: Wednesday Super odds: Matched the three super odds on the exchange and due to the difference in odds (If the odds on the bookies are greater than those for same bet on the exchange you are automatically profiting). £10 in 3 minutes
Boylesports: £10 Free bet if your bet loses(Premier League Match): £8 in 3 minutes
Paddy Power 2up: An offer where you get paid out early if your time goes up by 2 goals, the profit varies depending on what the odds on the exchange are when you back the team you orignally lay against, but this offer can make you a lot of profit (You will need to download the team profit calculator app and use the early payout calculator). Last week it Made me £35. £35 in 5 minutes
Novibet: Deposit £100 and get a £50 free bet. Very easy because you just have to deposit the money, get your free bet, withdraw your £100 straight away, then match the free bet on the exchange. £40 in 5 minutes
Coral: Bet 3x £5 in play and get a £5 free bet-Availble everyday. Just match these at half time so the odds are stable, Make sure you also place mug bets every couple of days if you do this one a lot, I would reccomend doing it 5 times a week tops. £20 in 30 minutes
Paddy Powe Skybet Bet clubs: Bet 5x £10 bets in a week to get a £10 free bet with Paddy Power. Bet £25 in a week to get a £5 free bet with Skybet. £10 in 30 minutes

Above you can see the reality of making profit long after you've finished the welcome offers, but it comes down to organisation.
So in Summary, these are my 6 Rules for making a monthly Profit:
(1) Check your email daily for offers, many times bookies will send you personalised offers just for you, and these can be very VERY generous.
(2) Check the Reload Offers section on Team profit every morning to see what offers are available that day.
(3) Offers change all the time- Don't let this put you off. There are always new offers to replace the previous ones. There are also Weekly/Daily offers ( Coral £50 free bet, Paddy power refund if 2nd 3rd 4th, William hill money back if second, Paddy Power 2up, Bet clubs etc) which are constantly available when sport is on.
(4) Make Mug bets ( Explained more in PART 3)
(5) It all adds up. Don't think "It's only a £5 free bet, not worth matching". I get around 15 £5 free bets every week, If I ignored them all I would be down £200 at the end of the month.
(6) Don't spend all day at it. Once you've checked your email and reload offers, you know what offers you need to do that day. Set alarms so you can make your matches before each event starts, but don't spend ages sitting at your computer waiting for "the perfect match", for your own mental health, set a time limit of 1 hour per day at most.

PART 3: FAQ
(1) How much money do you need to put in to start?
When you go onto the offers page on Team Profit after signing up, there is an option to start with £25, £50 or £100. You can select one of those three options And it will show you a different number of offers according to your selection. I started with £100 because I wanted to get things moving a little quicker. I did this so that I would have enough money for liability to do a bigger earning offer at the start. One year later, and having see the potential for profit, I keep around £500 floating between my accounts. This is useful for large sporting events where I may want to do around 10- 15 offers in a short time.
(2) Is it in anyway going to impact my credit score?
Using gambling sites doesn't effect your credit score unless you borrow money to fund it. I do all my match betting through a virtual bank (Monzo) in order to keep that stuff out of my main bank on the off chance that it raises any eyebrows. You'll be using Monzo like a cash card, where you can only spend the money you put into the card. This is why it won't affect your credit score, because you wouldn't be taking out an overdraft or using credit for example.
(3) What is Mug Betting?
Mug Betting is where you make bets that have no relation to any offer or promotion in order to appear like a regular punter. If you are doing a lot of offers on one site, it's a good idea to make mug bets in order to avoid being "gubbed" (Gubbed is a term for when bookies realise you are only taking advantadge of promotions and close your account permanantly). Of course you will also Match these "Mug bets" on the exchange. Make 1-2 Mug bets on Each site every week(On the sites you are using a lot for offers and promotions) in order to ensure your accounts last longer than 1-2 years. I have been matching for well over a year and have never been gubbed. Take the extra couple of minutes to Mug bet, it's worth it.
More on Mug betting here

Ok so that's everything I can think of to share with you guys, The link to sign up to your free Team Profit account is at the bottom of Part 1 of this guide.
TLDR: You do not need to "gamble" to match bet, in fact by definition, the bet you make is "matched" on the exchange, so it is not a gamble in any sense.
I really hope this guide will help someone out because It really is a solid way to sort out a months rent for quite a modest amount of work.
Thanks for Reading.

Match betting doesn't finish with the Welcome offers. Here is exactly how I make £1000 a month.

The Village (Part 1)

Read Part 2 here

‘The village… And the trees… The village…’
No other words came out of William MacLenor's mouth anymore. Even now, eighty years old, during those lazy afternoons when he used to sit on his rocking chair, his eyes fixed in fire crackling fire in the fireplace that memory dominated over his mind.
It all began many years ago, when he had gone to Pitlochry a small town of approximately three thousand residents in the heart of Scotland. The reason behind his visit there was a business deal he was about to make, considering the construction of a new distillery, that would not only boost his family’s whiskey production – strengthening their brand name as well – but also turn Pitlochry into a major industrial city in time.
William inhaled the air of victory, satisfied with his accomplishment and thought of his father, back in Inverness, who would have one more reason to feel proud of his son. Despite his initial scruples, he had decided to let William go alone on this trip. He didn’t underestimate his son in any way, but as he used to say “William is only thirty-one, barely a toddler in the profession, and gets easily excited”, which means that on the highway of investments you take the turn at the next exit. However, William presented a character and a plan at the Town Council that were translated into “serious business” and “true prospect” accordingly. In fact, he made such an impression for a ‘beginner’ that he managed to seal the deal two days earlier than anticipated.
The next morning, he checked the round-trip ticket one last time before throwing it in the trash bin. The train to Inverness would depart in two days but the seat numbered “2A” in the front carriage would remain empty. William had decided, in light of his recent achievement, to go all the way on foot through the wilderness. According to his calculations, it would take him exactly two days, maybe a little more, to cross the land. No highways, no means of transportation. Keep walking. That was what some of his rivals kept saying, right? So, that’s what he would do. Walk.
William began his journey holding his small suitcase – packed with a few clothes – in his left hand and a travel guide in his right. The morning was calm despite the considerable amount of clouds flying in the sky, covering the sun occasionally. He headed north and soon, after leaving the last line of Pitlochry’s houses behind him, he entered the Highlands, the largest region in Scotland: an endless grassland with hills rising in various places, and home to Loch Ness where Nessie, the legendary monster was rumored to live.
William found the path as the guide instructed and followed it for the next hours. He noticed a note beneath the path’s indication in the guide: “Hikers should be extra careful when roaming around this region. The Highlands are full of beauties, which you will marvel along the way, but at the same time, they host a great number of dangerous moors, carefully hidden beneath their thin, green blankets. You are advised to remain on the paths, designed and approved by experts.” Although the path in front of him constantly changed a lot (sometimes it was flat for a lot of meters, others it came to an abrupt ascent and then descent and sometimes it seemed to be lost among the hills), it lead him with safety. He kept walking and stopped only for short breaks to catch his breath.
It was a little time after noon had arrived and he felt so tired that he couldn’t go on. There was also a throbbing pain in his feet that declared its presence with every step he took; apparently, his boots weren’t the proper ones for the occasion. The guide informed him of an inn, The Highlands Maiden, almost a mile away, near the main highway. The path had taken a left turn, going westwards and, when William had covered half the distance to the inn, it turned right again facing north. He abandoned it and crossed the land towards the inn.
A few minutes later he saw the backside of a two-story lodging made out of stone, surrounded by tall trees with fat trunks. As he approached the building, he heard a cracking sound behind him as if a heavy branch had snapped in two. He spun around so quickly that he almost lost his balance. There wasn’t anything between the trees that could indicate the source of the sound. William didn’t mind; all he wanted was to remove those damned boots and take a hot bath.
He went around the inn. The front space, covered with cement, served as the parking lot. William noticed only two cars parked – nothing weird for the Scottish countryside in November. He approached the front door. Two lanterns, one on each side, cast the trembling light of the candles they carried within. Above the door hung a big wooden sign with the name The Highlands Maiden carved on it in yellow calligraphy letters next to a drawing of a woman with long red hair in a green dress, holding a pitcher of water.
William pushed the door open and entered a hall that reminded him of the old, medieval inns he had read about in the novels. It looked like a combination of a foyer and a restaurant with a dozen round wooden tables – neatly dressed with their tablecloths – and a counter on the far side. Apart from William, there was a young couple having lunch and a redhead man behind the counter, sorting a few glasses upside down on the shelves on the wall. William stood in front of the counter and left his suitcase on the floor.
‘Hello!’
The redhead turned around smiling. ‘Hello. How can I help you?’
‘I would like a room for tonight.’ William replied.
‘Certainly, sir. And just about time as it seems. The storm is going to be a nasty one.’
William looked behind the man, through the window by the shelves. The metallic-grey clouds that had now gathered up in the sky were massive. They had come so low that they could have touched the top of the trees. Rain was possible but as to its intensity, no one could say for sure: the Scottish climate is unpredictable but that is what makes Scotland… well… Scotland. His eyes shifted to a photograph of a woman on the counter.
‘Oh, that was my mother.’ said the redhead, following William’s gaze. ‘She died, unfortunately, giving birth to me. They ran this place together for a lot of years – its name back then was The Highlander – and then my father renamed it into The Highlands Maiden in her memory. Now that he is gone too, it’s all I have left.’
‘I am sorry to hear that.’ William said. He had to admit that there was a striking resemblance between the woman in the photo and the drawing on the sign. ‘You have done a very good job here. The place is beautiful. I am sure she would have been proud.’
‘Thank you.’ said the redhead. ‘My name is Cormac by the way. Cormac Glas.’
‘William MacLenor. Nice to meet you.’
As they shook hands, Cormac frowned. ‘MacLenor?! That sounds familiar.’
Instead of an answer, William pointed at a bottle on the second shelf. On the label was the name ‘John MacLenor & Son’ above the words “Malt Whiskey”.
‘Oh, yes.’ Cormac said. ‘I am sorry for that. Whiskey is not my cup of tea. I am more of a beer-type.’
‘That’s fine.’
‘Well, Mr. MacLenor, what brings you around these parts?’
‘I am on a journey back home to Inverness. However, I am going like in the olden days. No car, no train; just me on my two feet. And it’s William, please.’
‘Is that so?’ Cormac asked curiously. William wondered if he meant the journey or the statement about his name.
‘That’s interesting.’ he added. ‘You don’t get to see a lot of people travel on foot these days. But that upcoming rain worries me a lot. In here we are going to be alright, of course. Outside it’ll be hell on earth.’
‘How can you be so sure?’
‘Oh, I have seen lots of them. It’s like all the water of the world is coming down from the sky.’ Cormac said.
William looked worried. ‘Let’s hope it will be over by tomorrow morning. I can’t afford to lose a day, you see.’
‘Hey, listen, you don’t have to worry. Unless you have any special arrangements you can –’
‘As I said, I have to be on my way first thing in the morning!’ William said in a sharp way he had already regretted.
Cormac smiled again (this time, though, it was the professional let’s-get-over-with-it smile). ‘As you wish.’ he said. ‘Shall I show you to your room? You must be tired.’
William agreed, offering his apologies, and followed Cormac upstairs on the first floor. The room was small and cozy, with modern decoration. William half-expected to see an iron chandelier hanging from the ceiling with chains, or a couple of shields placed against the corners of the room. As they entered, the first drops of rain fell on the window. Rap, tap, tap. Cormac turned on the lights and then looked sideways at William. I told you.
‘This is the room.’ he said. ‘There is always hot water in the bathroom and you can use the phone if you need anything.’
William left his suitcase beside the bed. ‘It’s very nice. Thank you.’
‘Make yourself comfortable. Dinner is served at seven.’ Cormac said and left.
A couple of minutes later William had already got rid of his clothes and was relieving his aching body in the shower. He changed into a new pair of trousers and a dark green jumper. He sat in an armchair and set to reading a book until dinner. The rain was getting worse; each drop falling heavily on the window was a reminder: it’s probably going to be a nasty one…
At ten minutes to seven, he went downstairs, realizing how hungry he was. A pleasant smell mixed with something pungent filled his nostrils. He sat at a table surveying the other customers. Apart from the young couple, there was an elderly man, around seventy, at a corner table, his eyes fixed on a newspaper in front of him. A pipe seemed to be stuck between his lips, releasing large plumes of smoke that spread the pungent smell around.
‘Here you are.’ Cormac said, placing a bowl of steaming chicken soup and two slices of bread on William’s table.
‘Thank you very much.’ William replied and fell on his dinner with ravenous appetite while Cormac served the others.
The soup was deliciously warm, filling his empty stomach. William found it a perfect medicine against the raging storm outside. It was, actually, hell on earth as Cormac had predicted. Lightning bolts were giving an instant eerie illumination around – revealing hidden shadows – followed by the booming sound that made the windows tremble. Cormac put his bowl of soup along with a glass of beer and a glass of MacLenor whiskey on a tray and returned to William’s.
‘Can I join you?’ he asked.
William gestured an “OK” sign, his mouth being too full to risk speaking.
At that moment everyone was busy with their dinner, except for the old man who was deep in his newspaper, his eyes moving rapidly from left to right and back.
‘You see that man over there?’ Cormac asked. He had to speak louder because of the rain’s deafening sound. William nodded in return.
‘His name is Thomas Higgins and he was an attorney in London. My father once told me that the first time he came here was so long ago that even I hadn’t been born yet. He and his wife were on their honeymoon and wanted to visit the Scottish countryside. Such a lovely couple they were.’
He paused, looking at Mr. Higgins probably lost in contemplation. ‘His wife died twenty years ago…’ he went on, taking a painful expression. ‘Liver cancer, very bad you know. Ever since he comes here at every wedding anniversary with the same newspaper he had then and stays for exactly three days – the period he had spent here with his wife.’
‘Incredible!’ William muttered.
‘Aye.’ Cormac agreed and took a sip from his glass. ‘That is lonely Mr. Higgin’s story of devotion. What is yours?’
William eyed him curiously. ‘My story?’
‘Well, you said you are going home. I don’t know where you started from but Inverness is a long way. And since you have no lass with you – no offense –, I believe it’s either vacation or business.’ he smiled and added: ‘I’ll take my chances.’
William smiled back. ‘So, I have only two options.’
‘What else could there be?’
For an unknown reason, William felt irritated and found the question provoking. ‘It is business.’ he admitted. ‘My father wants to build another distillery for the company and Pitlochry – that’s where I was before – looked promising.’
‘Pitlochry? How so?’
A weird feeling crept over William and met with his irritation. Maybe he shouldn’t be discussing his father’s plans with a total stranger. Maybe he should tell him to fuck off and keep his nose out. Instead, he replied as politely as he could: ‘Pitlochry has a barren area that favors the construction of a distillery which means less unemployment and it will attract more people. It’s a good deal for both sides.’
‘It is as you say it then.’ Cormac said trying to remember the figure of speech. ‘Expand and conquer.’
‘In a way it’s true. In such a trade you either expand or you end up “at the bottom of the sea” ’.
‘Apparently, we are going to end up being the bottom of a sea, if it goes on raining like this.’ Cormac noted with a gloomy expression. ‘Anyway, I guess we will have to –’
William never learning what they had to. The door of the inn sprang open with a terrible bang that echoed all over the place like thunder. A large figure stepped in, leaving the door open. The wind was howling in the trees leading part of the rain inside. The figure was a tall, bald man with broad shoulders and a short grey beard. He stood where he was for a moment, soaked to the skin while his eyes moved from one to another and finally rested on William and Cormac. What surprised William most was not the fact that a man was outside in that storm – unless there was some serious emergency. But what emergency could have made someone leave his house in such weather dressed like an 18th-century warrior in a quilt? The only thing missing was a sword strapped to the man’s back like a quiver.
Just as a regular customer would have done, the stranger reached the counter in three large strides, leaving a trail of water behind him, and placed his hands on it. Perplexed, Cormac took his place behind the counter. Whatever it was that they were talking about was inaudible to William, but he couldn’t miss the frightened look on the couple’s faces. Even Mr. Higgins found something more interesting to look at and put his paper aside.
Then –having reached some sort of an agreement – the bald man produced a folded piece of cloth from within his quilt as Cormac took four bottles from the shelves and placed them before him on the counter. The stranger unfolded the cloth, which in fact was a small sack, put the bottles in it, gave Cormac a wet ten-pound note, and then turned and headed for the door.
‘Cormac,’ William began when the redhead host returned ‘who was that man?’
‘I have no idea…’ Cormac replied. ‘I have never seen him before. But there was something… something strange about him.’
‘You bet!’ William said almost laughing. ‘The man could have been anything but normal.’
‘Yes.’ Cormac agreed. ‘And yet, there was…’ his voice dropped to a whisper but William caught the last word: ‘familiar.’
‘What did he want?’
‘Just four bottles of brandy.’ Cormac said looking at him thoughtfully.
‘What for?’
‘He didn’t tell me. Only that he was in a hurry and that there was little time left.’ he said and averted his gaze.
William sensed there was more than Cormac had told him. Perhaps the transaction between him and the stranger hadn’t been the only subject of their conversation.
It was near midnight and William was lying on his back, trying to sleep but in vain. As if every time sleep tried to get hold of him, his mind pushed it away saying no I have other, more important business to attend to. It conjured images of the bald man, striding across the foyer, drenched in water like a creature that has just emerged from the sea. Maybe there was someone in need of help. But if that was the case, shouldn’t he be looking for a doctor or a drug store instead of – what – four bottles of brandy? At last, his mind withdrew and sleep came over him dragging him to the alleys of the dreams.
The foyer was now empty. Everyone had gone to bed, or so Cormac assumed. He was standing there behind his counter like a ghost in the darkness. A candle in his hand was casting its weak light as Cormac reached for yesterday’s newspaper under the counter. He flipped through the pages until he found the article he was looking for. His eyes lingered incredulously on the picture of a man above the title. The man was definitely familiar now.
William felt so cold, he could barely move a limb. It was half-past two in the morning according to the clock by the bedside table. His eyes fell on the open window to his right. William was certain that it was closed when he came up earlier. Could the strong wind have opened it? He sat up dazed and frozen. The rain had stopped but the temperature had dropped fiercely. He went to the window and as he grabbed the handle he noticed someone walking among the trees below. It was the bald man, who stopped at the base of a tree, opened his sack, and took out a bottle. Then he looked up towards William’s window as if he knew he was there.
William felt horror crawl over him as he looked at the stranger. He looked like a grotesque painting from an old, forgotten era. William had only seen the right side of his face as he emerged in the inn. The left, however, bore no resemblance to the right. A thick white scar began at his forehead and ended beneath his jaw while a blind eye seemed as vivid as the good one. The man opened the bottle and poured its contents all over the tree’s roots. Then another bottle and another until William realized it wasn't brandy that was pouring over the roots but blood.
‘This is the final touch.’ he said in a hoarse voice still holding the last bottle. ‘Your touch.’
If William believed the man was acting weird earlier, now he thought he must be totally nuts. None of this made any sense and yet he stood there, his hand still gripping the window’s handle, like hypnotized. Then the tree’s branches stirred as if by a soft wind. After a few seconds, they were moving more lively like dancing in the air. They slowly approached the open window.
William staggered backwards suddenly consious of a liquid dripping on his chest. He turned his palms upwards, dark blood glistening on them. He felt with his fingers and found a gash from one side of his throat to the other. He was bleeding to death. He fell on his knees trying desperately to breathe while his vision blurred. Your final touch. Your blood.
William awoke with a scream. The faint morning light was shining through the closed window. He took two deep breaths to calm himself down. There was a glass of water on the bedside table and as he got out of bed he drank it in one large gulp.
He went hastily to the mirror on the wall between the room's door and the bathroom. A bad night's sleep combined with a streak of white in his brown, wavy hair always made him look tired and older. He also needed a haircut and a shave. But that was not what gave him goosebumps and made his spine shiver. It was a red line, two centimeters wide, from one side of the throat to the other, like an abnormal smile. A skin rash, he wondered. However he knew what it was, because that's what a healing wound from a cut must look like.
End of Part One

The Top UK Sports Betting Site Welcome Offers

Offseason with Cidolfus: Pre-Draft Recap

Pre-Draft Recap

I said I might do another one of these, time permitting. Little did I know that I’d leave my house only four times in the past month to go to the grocery store. I’ve found quite a bit of time hunkered down in my apartment. I think my dog is getting sick of me.
I know my wife is getting sick of me.
The Dolphins were active early in free agency. They made a lot of expected moves (at least in terms of what positional needs we prioritized) and some more surprising ones. This leaves the team in an interesting place headed into the draft .
In various discussions we’ve had over the past few weeks, I’ve tackled a couple cap questions, particularly in regards to the effective cap cost of rookie contracts as well as cap flexibility in 2021. In this offseason entry, I plan to address those topics and others to contextualize the way I see the draft shaking out.
If you missed any of my previous posts, find the links below. A lot of it is out of date at this point, but if you’d like a good laugh you can see how often I was wrong (although, compared to previous years, I think I did pretty well this year), take a look.

Wildcard Round Weekend: Quarterbacks
Divisional Round Weekend: The 2019 Season in Review
Conference Championship Weekend: Potential and Expected Salary Cap Casualties and Positions of Need
Pro Bowl Weekend: Building the Offense
Super Bowl Weekend: Building the Defense
Pre-Draft Recap

Remaining Free Agency Moves

Earlier this year, I projected a much more aggressive roster culling ahead of free agency than we ended up actually receiving. Aside from getting the departure of Reshad Jones right (admittedly, that one was a bit of a gimme), I also thought that by now we would have moved on from Albert Wilson, Taco Charlton, and Jakeem Grant to free up additional cap space. Instead, we dropped Kilgore (a move I considered unlikely), and--so far at least--have kept the others.
There’s still plenty of time for things to change ahead of the 55-man roster cutdown. As currently constructed, our roster has a logjam of players at both the wide receiver and defensive end positions (never thought I’d be saying that second bit already). The Dolphins have 11 wide receivers under contract and eight defensive ends. Several of these players are minimum salary types filling out the offseason roster for camp, but there are plenty of locks at both to make the roster as well relative to the number of expected roster spots available at each position.
Wide Receiver

Player	Cap Charge	Savings
Albert Wilson	$10,833,344	$9,500,000
DeVante Parker	$6,100,000	-$6,000,000
Jakeem Grant	$4,380,000	-$1,800,000
Allen Hurns	$2.883,333	$2,016,666
Mack Hollins	$825,000	$825,000
Isaiah Ford	$750,000	$750,000
Andy Jones	$750,000	$750,000
Ricardo Louis	$750,000	$750,000
Preston Williams	$675,000	$671,666
Gary Jennings	$675,000	$675,000
Terry Wright	$610,000	$610,000

It’s a reasonable bet that the Dolphins will carry five wide receivers on the final 53-man roster. That’s how many we’ve kept every year for the past three seasons. That likely means half of the names above will be cut. DeVante Parker and Jakeem Grant (now that his base salary for the 2020 season has been guaranteed) are locks for the roste. Their contracts make them more expensive to cut than to keep. Preston Williams should also be expected to return for obvious reasons.
That leaves two spots for the remaining eight guys, and I have to imagine that Allen Hurns--who signed an extension in the middle of last season--has an edge to keep his spot despite the potential cap savings. Isaiah Ford also came along when injuries pushed him to the top of the depth chart at the end of the season last year, convincing the team to pick him up as an exclusive rights free agent.
Obviously Albert Wilson fills a niche on the roster that most of the other guys don’t--unless we expect to see Jakeem Grant take a larger role as the team’s slot receiver. There’s been discussion that the team plans to use Mike Gesicki in a big slot role, but that doesn’t rule out keeping Wilson. It’s not unthinkable that we carry six wide receivers in 2020, especially with Chan Gailey as our offensive coordinator and the extra two roster spots granted by the new CBA. His spread concepts figure to see more multiple-receiver sets, after all. This especially makes sense given that we should expect Grant and Ford (or whoever earns a roster spot over Ford) to see more use on special teams than offense. With the extra roster spots available, maybe this is one of the places we use one.
Even should we keep him, I would prefer to see Wilson’s cap figure altered. There’s almost no way that he can live up to his $10.8 million cap charge in such a crowded field. If we do decide to keep him, I hope it involves a restructure and extension similar to the deal that Parker took in place of his fifth year option last year. He’s performed well in limited snaps, but his injury history and slow return last season may hurt his value moving forward, giving the team leverage to flex his remaining cap figure into a two-year contract. I suspect, though, that if that was going to happen, it already would have given the other extensions we’ve offered the plenty of our other receivers.
I also expected him to be cut by no, though.
Defensive Ends

Player	Cap Charge	Savings
Shaq Lawson	$10,833,333	-$10,066,667
Emmanuel Ogbah	$7,500,000	$0
Charles Harris	$3,450,356	$291,559
Taco Charlton	$1,832,541	$1,374,541
Trent Harris	$750,000	$750,000
Avery Moss	$750,000	$750,000
Zach Sieler	$750,000	$750,000
Jonathan Ledbetter	$750,000	$750,000

Lawson and Ogbah are our starting defensive ends in 2020. Headed into free agency, I expected defensive end to be a big target in the draft as well. Now I’m less certain. As a first round selection, Harris’s 2020 salary is mostly guaranteed, so we save almost nothing other than a roster spot by moving on from him. Teams rarely cut players that don’t offer cap savings, so barring someone outperforming him in camp, I expect him to be on the roster. That still leaves a five or six way battle for what remains of only three or four defensive end spots.
Consider also how many linebackers the Dolphins are likely to carry into the 2020 season: Kyle Van Noy, Kamu Grugier-Hill, Vince Biegel, Elandon Roberts, Raekwon McMillan, and Jerome Baker are virtual locks to make the roster--and that’s already six linebackers before we get to guys like Andrew Van Ginkel and Sam Eguavoen who are cheap and look to earn a spot based on their performance last season and their special teams value.
Our 2019 roster structure looked a lot more like that of the Patriots last year: fewer defensive linemen and more linebackers. We used 3-4 looks more often than we have in years past, and that means that we’re getting edge rushers from the linebackers as well. Signing Kyle Van Noy likely signals that we’ll continue to see plenty of this.
Realistically, of the bottom five guys on the list above, the one most likely to make the roster is probably the one who can be moved around the most successfully. If one of those guys can find productivity flexing between 4-3 DE and 3-4 DE or 4-3 DE and 3-4 OLB and be productive at both positions, then they’ll have a leg up making the roster.
Remaining Free Agency
Although it’s already April and less than two weeks from the NFL Draft, there are still a handful of free agents remaining at what might be considered positions of need. Two of the biggest names are Jadeveon Clowney and Yannick Ngakoue, both of whom are finding their markets to be lower than they initially anticipated (although Ngakoue’s situation is complicated by his tag designation). As detailed above, though, I think it unlikely that we bring in another defensive end--much less one that we can barely afford. Clowney’s asking price has reportedly fallen to the $17-18 million per year range, but that’s still out of our price range at this point.
Trading with the Vikings for Anthony Harris would make more sense than trying to acquire either Clowney and Ngakoue, but even that’s unlikely. Trading for Harris would be cheaper than trading for Ngakoue in terms of both draft assets required and the cost of his new contract, but it’s unlikely we would spend top money on safety after paying Byron Jones. While free safety is arguably the position we stand most to benefit from upgrading on defense, I can’t imagine a scenario where we become suitors for Harris with our current cap commitments at the position. Such a move would likely signal an impending trade of Xavien Howard.
As always, the elephant in the room is the quarterback situation. It remains our biggest position of need headed into the draft, and both Cam Newton and Jameis Winston are available. We don’t need to rehash my thoughts on free agent quarterbacks from my first post in this series, but you can guess where I stand on signing either of them. Hint: don’t.
It should be abundantly clear by now that the Dolphins made their moves early in free agency and we’re unlikely to do much more ahead of the draft. We’re in a comfortable place with our cap space and already carry 78 players on our roster. With fourteen draft picks in our back pocket for later this month, we’re already going to have to drop two players to meet the maximum offseason roster size of 90 players, unless of course we draft fewer than fourteen players because we’re losing some picks to move up. There’s also undrafted free agents who will get signed.
We can safely ignore any discussion about the Dolphins bringing any free agents in other than minimum contract players for the rest of the offseason.

Cap Space

So where does that leave us? Over The Cap calculates the Dolphins as having $23,886,772 in salary cap space remaining. With the roster filled out well past the top 51 contracts that actually count, it’s time to recalculate the effective cap cost of our rookie contracts. OTC lists our total rookie pool cost at $18,096,615. They’re wrong. For whatever reason, they’re missing one of our fourteen picks--number 154--received from Jacksonville via Pittsburgh. Good news? It doesn’t actually change our calculation since it’s value ($690,227) is lower than our cheapest contract in the top 51 on our roster ($750,000), so it costs us effectively nothing for now.
In fact, the bottom eight of our fourteen picks (rounds four and later) are all below the lowest contract on our top 51, so they’re all effectively free in terms of cap commitment. That leaves our top six draft picks displacing six $750,000 contracts at the bottom of our roster, bringing our effective salary cap cost total to $8,946,548. That leaves us with $14,940,224 in salary cap space for 2020. Barring any extensions, expect nearly all of that to roll over into 2021.
Importantly, where does this leave us for 2021? Based on the bump in the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, Over the Cap projects a base salary cap of $215,000,000 in 2021. With our current cap commitments and anticipated rollover, we’re likely to enter the 2021 season with $48,480,196 in available cap space.
That number is much lower than you might be seeing listed elsewhere, because I’ve included the cost of our this year’s draft class not only against this year’s cap (which reduces our amount for rollover as detailed above) but next year’s as well (which comes out to a whopping $23,458,157). Sites like Spotrac and OTC typically won’t price that in until after the draft and the players actually sign, and not without reason. Any trades in the draft can shift this amount pretty substantially, especially if we package one of our firsts to move up. It’s a good working figure at this point, though.
How about the way-too-early look ahead? Aside from the obvious move to cut Albert Wilson this season and save $9.5 million (yes, I’m going to keep banging this drum) or moving on from Julie’n Davenport after drafting tackles ($2,133,000 in savings), there are several players who can become cap casualties in 2021.

Player	Cap Hit	Cap Savings
Kyle Van Noy	$13,900,000	$9,775,000
Xavien Howard	$13,500,000	$9,300,000
Emmanuel Ogbah	$7,500,000	$7,500,000
Bobby McCain	$7,140,400	$5,659,600
Eric Rowe	$5,050,000	$4,000,000
Jordan Howard	$5,000,000	$5,000,000
Jakeem Grant	$4,750,000	$2,950,000
Jesse Davis	$4,585,000	$2,585,000
Allen Hurns	$3,608,334	$3,175,000
Clayton Fejedelem	$2,525,000	$2,525,000

Unless something has gone terribly wrong, many of these names are safe for 2021 (Van Noy and Ogbah top that list). Others might find themselves on the wrong end of a team looking to shift its roster around. If Howard is injured yet again, his contract becomes easy to move on from, especially as we’d still have Byron Jones. I’d bet that one of either McCain or Rowe isn’t with the Dolphins for the 2021 season. Others might find themselves on the right end of a team looking to lock a player down long term. If Ogbah is healthy and shows out all season, he could be in line for an extension that increases his APY moving forward while decreasing his 2021 APY.
In brief, players like McCain, Rowe, Howard, and Davis could all find themselves as cap casualties because they play positions that we are likely to target in this draft to find long-term replacements. Similarly, the logjam at wide receiver could see departures for Grant or Hurns in 2021, freeing up additional cap space.
That cap flexibility--having nearly $50 million in available cap space already and the ability to free up even more--is impressive considering our spending spree in the past few weeks. It’s also doubly important because 2021’s free agent includes several players likely to play starting or key depth roles in 2020 who will be free agents in 2021 including Kamu Grugier-Hill, Ted Karras, Vince Biegel, Matt Haack, Elandon Roberts, Raekwon McMillan, and Davon Godchaux. Players set to hit free agency in 2022 who might be up for extensions at the same time include Emmanuel Ogbah, Mike Gesicki, and Jerome Baker.
We’re unlikely to be active in 2021 free agency the way we were this year, but we have the cap health to re-sign who we wish from our own players without mortgaging our future. We entered the 2020 free agency season with an enormous amount of cap space and managed to spend aggressively (more money in new contracts than any other NFL team) without putting ourselves into a cap crunch for the future.

Positional Spending

I didn’t expect to sign Byron Jones mostly because I never thought that we would be paying two of the three highest-paid cornerbacks in the league on the same team. It’s obviously a move we can afford (as detailed above), but I’m not used to the secondary being a position in which we’ve aggressively invested resources. I wanted to take a closer look at how we’re spending our cap space by position groups by active cap spending (a total of $173,655,544 at time of writing). Let’s break it down.
Offense

.	QB	OL	RB	WR	TE
Cap Charge	$10,919,796	$21,564,640	$7,222,295	$26,521,667	$2,711,310
Percentage	6.29%	12.42%	4.16%	15.27%	1.56%

Defense and Special Teams

.	DL	LB	DB	ST
Cap Charge	$27,358,247	$26,284,817	$47,416,972	$3,655,800
Percentage	15.75%	15.14%	27.31%	2.11%

These numbers will fluctuate significantly by the time we wittle the roster down to the final 55, but even now it’s apparent how this front office plans to build this team. A total of 58.2% of our active cap spending is going to defense. Consider also that the Dolphins are carrying an additional $18,177,506 in dead cap for defensive players while only carrying a tenth of that ($1,862,740) in dead cap for offensive players.
Expect quarterback, running back, offensive line to see the largest increases to this figure after the draft. Barring something unexpected, we’ll be drafting a quarterback at fifth overall (or higher), and with multiple openings on the offensive line, it’s possible (likely?) that we draft two offensive linemen in our first five selections. There’s a gaping hole at running back as well. Those high draft selections will be enough to move the needle in a significant way.
The number that jumps to the most immediate attention, of course, is our spending on defensive backs at nearly $50 million in total cap commitments for a total of $27.31% of active cap spending. This may be our new normal for a while. In the past three seasons, the Patriots have allocated 23.61%, 21.63%, and 23.62% of their total cap spending to the secondary. They’ve also done that while spending much more heavily on quarterback even with Brady on “bargain” deals. I wouldn’t be surprised to see this number go up in the short term either, as I think it’s likely we target a safety in the first or second rounds this year.
We’ve allocated more of our resources to the defensive line and linebacker positions than the Patriots have the past few years, but not by much. Our spending in both groups is boosted dramatically by our new free agents at the positions (Ogbah, Van Noy, and Lawson) and has been fueled by our absolutely dire pass rush situation.
Due to Fizpatrick’s contract, 2020 is likely to be our most expensive year at the quarterback position until 2024 when whatever rookie we draft could be retained on the fifth year option. The defensive secondary cost will likely come down in the near future as I think it’s unlikely Bobby McCain and Eric Rowe play out their current contracts, but in general we’re probably looking at splits roughly along these lines over the next few seasons.

2020 Free Agency Signings

Having looked at the money, let’s examine what that money bought us. Obviously this section is very subjective. As I’m sure many of you have noticed in plenty of other discussions on this subreddit, I’m positive on our signings as a whole. I try to be optimistic about the moves we make because grousing about them isn’t much fun.
Clayton Fejedelem: Three Years, $8,550,000, $3,000,000 Guaranteed
It always makes me uncomfortable when a new coach tries too hard to be the head coach he learned under. This has especially proved a concern for Belichick disciples who often try to jump right into being a hard ass without having earned the respect. Fortunately, that does not appear to be too much of a concern with Flores so far.
I bring up coaches mimicking their mentors here because even though Fejedelem wasn’t a Patriot, this signing reeks of the type of player that Belichick covets. Fejedelem checks so many boxes. He provides much-needed depth at a positional weakness from last season, he’s been a core special teams guy for the Bengals, and he’s a former team captain.
He costs under three million per year to bring depth at a position our front office clearly values, provides good special teams value, and he should fit with the type of team culture Flores is building. All of his guaranteed money is in 2020, and his contract is front-loaded as well. It’s a rock solid deal for someone who figures to be a solid player for us both on the field and in the locker room.
Ereck Flowers: Three Years, $30,000,000, $19,950,000 Guaranteed
I wish I had as much optimism about Flowers as I did about Fejedelem, but I’m less comfortable with this contract. It clearly fills a position of need, as we badly needed to improve our offensive line. In my Building the Offense entry in this series, I referred to Flowers as a competent guy who wouldn’t break the bank. I stand by the assertion he’s an improvement over any of the guards currently on our roster, but the $10 million per year number is a little higher than I expected.
While I understand that offensive line talent is increasingly at a premium, making Ereck Flowers the 14th-highest paid guard in the NFL after only one good season at the position in Washington is not without risk, especially with nearly two thirds of his contract fully guaranteed. What hurts more is that for $14 million per year, the Browns landed Jack Conklin--probably my top offensive line target in free agency--and the Chargers signed Bryan Bulaga--the Conklin consolation prize--for only $6.75 million per year. I would have preferred either of those to Flowers.
That said, it’s only fair to acknowledge that Flowers quickly became one of the top guards in a thinning market when both Brandon Scherff and Joe Thuney were tagged. Graham Glasgow, a similar prospect converted from center to guard, went for $11 million APY and Andrus Peat coming off of two poor seasons signed at $11.5 million APY. There’s an argument to be made that the guard market has just really closed the gap on tackles and Flowers got market rate.
This move, and the lack of a tackle signed in free agency, signals that our front office is confident that we can either successfully address both left and right tackle in the draft this year or that Jesse Davis can be a long-term solution at right guard. This shouldn’t be too surprising given Davis’s contract extension, but I’m not 100% on board with it.
If we’ve overpaid for Flowers’s services as I suspect, at least it’s only a three-year deal and we can move on with only $1 million in dead cap ahead of the 2022 season. Optimistically, Flowers continues to play up to his 2019 standard at guard and proves himself worthy of the contract as he comes home to Miami.
Kamu Grugier-Hill: One Year, $3,000,000, $2,000,000 Guaranteed
Although this signing is likely to draw comparisons to Fejedelem for very transparent reasons (they’re both defensive depth who figure as core special teams contributors who were team captains for their previous team), Grugier-Hill carries greater risk. Fortunately, this is reflected in his short-term deal. His 2019 season ended early due to a lower lumbar disc herniation and also missed time for other injuries.
If healthy, though, he brings a lot of the same mojo to the team as Fejedelem, with the added benefit of being one of several new Dolphins to bring championship experience to the team. As with Fejedelem, Grugier-Hill is the kind of guy who checks a lot of boxes: he’s cheap, he provides key depth and special teams value, he’s familiar with our defensive system, and he figures to be an immediate leader in a very young locker room.
Jordan Howard: Two Years, $9,750,000, $4,750,000 Guaranteed
Shocking nobody, I’m not high on signing Jordan Howard. Mostly because I’m not high on spending money on running backs in general, and paying a running back coming off an injury-shortened season makes me more nervous than at most positions. The Dolphins had the worst rushing attack in the NFL in 2019, though, and before his injury this year, Howard was on track again for a solid season in line for previous years. He’s a big bodied back who figures to split the load with the rookie we inevitably draft.
As a personal consolation, I can remind myself that none of his 2021 salary is guaranteed., so it’s essentially a one-year, prove-it deal.
Byron Jones: Five Years, $82,500,000, $46,000,000 Guaranteed
In my offseason entry on Building the Defense I wrote, “Frankly, Jones and Howard likely immediately becomes the best corner tandem in the NFL for the next couple seasons, and we’ve all seen how you can build a defense from the secondary with a rookie quarterback and find a lot of success. That said, I don’t know that our front office could swallow objections to paying what would likely be $30 million APY between two corners.”
I badly misjudged our front office’s priorities. While I said that if we did decide to address cornerback in free agency, it would be Byron Jones or bust, I didn’t take the possibility seriously. Some will have concerns that Jones doesn’t get enough interceptions to be made a top-paid defensive back in the NFL, but I take the same opinion towards interceptions as I do to sacks--they’re the gaudy number that get the attention and they’re obviously impactful, but they’re the rare high points that don’t speak to a player’s actual impact on a per-snap basis.
Byron Jones finished fourth in coverage snaps per reception last year (17.9), tied for second in coverage snaps per target (10.1), and fourth in yards per coverage snap (0.62). Opposite a ball hawk like Xavien Howard, it figures that Jones might see more targets and more opportunities for interceptions himself. As discussed above, building a defense from the back forward is a clear priority of this team. It might not have been the strategy I’d have embraced, but I get it, and it’s hard not to be excited about the potential of our new cornerback tandem.
Most importantly, we’re not committed beyond the 2020 season to huge spending at cornerback. Byron Jones’s contract makes him a lock for the roster through the 2022 season (age 30), but Xavien Howard has an out next year. If Howard proves once again to be unable to remain healthy, we can move on from him and still have one of the top corners in the league in 2021 on the roster.
Ted Karras: One Year, $4,000,000, $4,000,000 Guaranteed
This is not-so-low-key one of my favorite signings. I didn’t give Karras much of a look in my previous entry evaluating offensive free agent targets, and I’m honestly not sure how he slipped through the cracks. Karras acquitted himself well as a back-up at both center and guard and stepped up as New England’s starting center in 2019. He had a rough stretch in the middle of the season, but from week 12 onward through the wildcard round, Karras didn’t allow a single pressure.
Karras’s contract is a one-year, prove-it deal that gives us flexibility to play him at guard or center depending on who we pick up in the draft. A starting offensive lineman at $4,000,000 is good value no matter how you slice it, and Karras has upside to be a long-term solution whereas Kilgore was clearly a stopgap. It’s a lateral move in terms of cap cost, but an upgrade on the offensive line. While it doesn’t solve our biggest problem on the line (tackle), it helps.
Shaq Lawson, Three Years, $30,000,000, $21,000,000 Guaranteed

Lawson’s a decent candidate for the kind of player we might offer a more modest, short-term contract and see if he can improve with a change of scenery. If we strike out on bigger names in free agency, picking up Lawson and maybe another cheaper guy on the list to round out or defensive end depth alongside another edge rusher with one of our first five picks in the draft isn’t the worst strategy.

At least I’m not always wrong. In my assessment of the options to improve our edge rush, I expected that many impending free agents would not actually make it to free agency. Shaquil Barrett, Bud Dupree, and Matt Judon never hit the market. Yannick Ngakoue and Leonard Williams were franchise-tagged. Even the 49ers made moves to keep Arik Armstead.
Instead of paying bigger money to try and sign Jadeveon Clowney or Dante Fowler Jr., we went the cheaper route to bring on both Lawson and Ogbah. The combined cost of both of them is only marginally more than the tag amount for Ngakoue and Williams and less than Clowney was initially seeking.
Lawson’s deal comes in at 18th among 4-3 Defensive Ends. It’s very high on guarantees as a percentage of the contract, but it’s essentially a two-year deal with only $1,333,334 in dead money in 2022 if we decide to move on. Lawson’s deal also includes additional incentives for sacks and team achievements, and I can’t be mad about incentives on a deal. If the player meets them, we obviously can’t say they didn’t earn it.
A staple of Belichick defenses has been to rely on the scheme to generate pressure. Our strategy is looking similar. Our defense is prioritizing lockdown coverage rather than relying on individual pass rushing performance to get to the quarterback. Hopefully Lawson is able to take advantage. If not, it’s a two-year investment at a relatively modest amount for the position that we can move on from without major consequence. If nothing else, he’s almost certainly an upgrade over anything we already had.
Kyle Van Noy, Four Years, $51,000,000, $15,000,000 Guaranteed
Despite the gaudy numbers on the contract, Van Noy’s deal is structured extremely favorably to the Dolphins. His full guarantees include only $5.5 million in signing bonus, $6.5 million in 2020 roster bonus, and $3 million in 2020 base salary. Because his 2021 and 2022 base salaries become fully guaranteed on the fifth day of each league year, that means that if he flames out we can move on with minimal dead money. Any time you can walk away from a four-year deal in year two with only $4,125,000 in dead cap and $9,775,000 in cap savings should be considered a major coup.
With how often I’ve mentioned the Patriots defensive scheme, the fit for Van Noy in Miami is braindead obvious. He brings flexibility that few of our current linebackers and none of our defensive ends have. He’s solid in run defense, as a pass rusher, and even dropping back into coverage. We have guys who can do one or two of those things very well, but none right now who are above average (and consistent) across the board.
Van Noy is expensive for his position and he’s on the older side of the free agents we’ve signed (having just turned 29 shortly after signing), but he should be expected to be a key piece for our defensive scheme with the flexibility he brings to the table. Last year, I thought that Trey Flowers would be a good fit for us given the Patriots. Instead, he rejoined Matt Patricia up north and had a really solid year (seven sacks, fourteen hits, and 41 hurries alongside 33 defensive stops). I’m optimistic that Van Noy can have a similarly smooth transition to working under Flores in Miami.
Emmanuel Ogbah, Two Years, $15,000,000, $7,500,000 Guaranteed
There’s not a lot to be said about Ogbah’s deal that hasn’t already been said about Lawson, except that it’s even less of a financial commitment. Coming off of a career-best, but injury-shortened season, we’re betting on Ogbah to take the next step. The contract is very favorable to the Dolphins: it’s 26th among 4-3 Defensive Ends in terms of APY and has no guaranteed money in year two. As a result, it’s essentially a one year prove-it deal.
If Ogbah plays to his potential and is able to pick up where he left off before injury with the Chiefs, he’s likely to see an extension next year that will keep him with the team long term. If not, we move on no worse for the wear. If he’s a middle-of-the-road kind of guy as he has been for much of his career? Well, $7.5 million isn’t a whole lot for a defensive end who we can still use in rotation.
Signing both Ogbah and Lawson takes immense pressure off of the front office to draft a defensive end high. Considering that we signed Van Noy at linebacker, who figures to have a significant role on passing downs as well, I’d argue that we may not draft a defensive end in the first few rounds at all. Again, more on that later.
Elandon Roberts, One Year, $2,000,000, $1,000,000 Guaranteed
The Patriots were hard up against the cap this year after tagging Thuney, and Roberts was a free agency casualty as a result. This isn’t a big contract, but it’s a good one. Tell me if you’ve heard this one before: he’s a defensive depth player who was a team captain who sees most of his impact on special teams and brings championship experience to our young roster.
Roberts saw a decreased workload at linebacker (where he saw a majority of his snaps as a run defender and in coverage) in 2019 because of his increased role on special teams, but he also saw work as a fullback (and even caught a touchdown against us in the final game of the regular season).
It’s pretty clear that Flores has a type.

Remaining Needs

Our most dire needs are obvious. We don’t have a long-term answer at quarterback. Aside from a gaping hole at left tackle, we could also stand to upgrade at right guard, right tackle, or even center depending on where we play Karras and Davis. After signing Jordan Howard, running back remains a priority as our depth at the position among the worst in the league. We only have two tight ends in the top 51 contracts on this team, and fans and the team alike really only have expectations for Gesicki.
It stands to reason based on positional spending alone that our biggest holes are on offense, but that doesn’t mean we can’t stand to improve on defense as well. If I had to rank needs?
Quarterback Offensive Tackle Guard or Center Free Safety Running Back Nose Tackle Tight End Linebacker
I expect that the most controversial part of this list will be the lack of defensive end. As I’ve suggested above, I don’t think we should be targeting the position as a priority following the signing of Ogbah and Lawson unless someone falls.
Both Ogbah and Lawson have excelled primarily as ends in 4-3 fronts, so expect that’s how we’ll use them most of the time. Ogbah has (at least to my knowledge) not seen much use as an outside linebacker in 4-3 looks and Lawson struggled with it early in his career in Buffalo. So while a pure 4-3 defensive end isn’t high on our list of needs, that doesn’t mean we won’t ignore pass rush entirely.
Van Noy figures to take snaps at one of our outside linebacker spots, exactly where he saw almost all of his snaps with the Patriots. Baker saw time both at the weak side and middle linebacker positions in 2019, and depending on our defensive front will likely continue that trend. These two are the only guys I see on our roster right now who figure as three-down backers unless McMillan makes a big step forward in coverage.
We also have a lot of depth at linebacker: Biegel saw a lot of snaps at outside linebacker last year and he’s returning; in the last two games Van Ginkel saw the majority of the games’ snaps at outside linebacker as well; McMillan and Eguavoen made up the majority of the rest of our snaps at middle linebacker. Except maybe Eguavoen, whose roster spot is the most tenuous of the group, these players all should expect to see continued rotational use.
There’s definitely a scenario where we look to improve our linebackers, and if there’s a guy who can be a three-down type of guy at middle linebacker or someone who flexes really outside in 4-3 and 3-4 looks, I could see us pulling the trigger in the right circumstances. Ultimately, though, I have both nose tackle and free safety listed higher on our list of needs because those are the positions where a major upgrade will bring us the biggest improvement.
For example, John Jenkins played the majority of our snaps at nose tackle in 2019 with Godchaux contributing some snaps there as well. We haven’t brought Jenkins back, and Godchaux’s probably better used at DE in 3-4 looks. Someone who can play rotationally at nose tackle would be a big boon for this defense, and fills a position where we really have no go-to guy. More importantly, that type of rotational player can be had outside of the first round entirely.
I don’t think many people would disagree about listed free safety as one of our top defensive needs. Bobby McCain is coming off of an injury shortened season. Before he was injured, he was having a rough transition to free safety. He got abused in coverage in five of his nine games played in 2019, allowing passer ratings of 139.6, 144.6, 104.2, 118.8, and 158.3.
At the time he signed his current contract, McCain was made the highest-paid slot corner in the NFL and he’s barely played the position since then. Not only would drafting a free safety likely improve upon McCain’s mediocre performance at the position last year, it would allow McCain to return to the position that earned him his contract. Given that the nickel defense is essentially the base defense these days, improving both free safety and nickel corner with one draft pick could improve our defense significantly.
The other needs listed above barely require commenting. Quarterback and offensive line lead our needs by a country mile, and both will almost certainly be addressed early. We need better running back talent to improve on our league-worst rushing in 2019. It’s not a question of if we will draft a running back, but rather when.
Many pundits and fans expect we’ll address the position in the first or second round. Much like my position on drafting a quarterback, I’ve talked to death (even by my standards) about how I feel about drafting running backs in the first round. Some will note the value of using the 26th pick to secure a fifth year option, but I’m not convinced. That fifth year option is just as valuable or more valuable at another position.
Moreover, when was the last time the Dolphins re-signed a running back? Not just a rookie--any running back? Frank Gore, Kenyan Drake, Jay Ajayi, Damien Williams, Lamar Miller, and Reggie Bush were all productive backs in the past decade who we let walk or actively traded away. You have to go all the way back to Ronnie Brown and Ricky Wiliams to find backs who received offers after their initial contracts with the Dolphins, and in both their cases we only gave them another year. Sure, this is a different front office, but that’s a trend that’s been true of this team through multiple front offices, and I’ve seen no indication that it’s likely to change.
Like with linebacker, I see tight end as a position where our depth could improve and wouldn’t be surprised to see us take a flyer late or jump on somebody we like in the middle rounds, but I don’t expect it to be a priority.

Week 14 Matchup Strategy Guide - Part 3

Part 3 of 3

Part 1 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-14-matchup-strategy-guide-part-1

Part 2 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-14-matchup-strategy-guide-part-2

GLOSSARY

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average.
DVOA Pass/Run Defense Rank: Team’s NFL rank in DVOA pass or run defense so far this season. #1 means best DEF against the pass/run, #32 means worst DEF against the pass/run.
ATS = Against the spread
DVOA from https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef/2019

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Chargers ATS: 3-7-2 Jaguars ATS: 5-7-1
Projected Team Totals: Chargers 23 Jaguars 20

Chargers

Opp (JAX) Pass DVOA: #16
Opp (JAX) Run DVOA: #31
Injuries to Watch DEF (JAX): S Ronnie Harrison (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAC): None
Key WCB matchups: Mike Williams vs. A.J. Bouye (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Keenan Allen (25%) Hunter Henry (21%) Austin Ekeler (15%) Mike Williams (15%) Melvin Gordon (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Melvin Gordon (65%, 22, 3) Austin Ekeler (53%, 13, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Chargers continue to find new and more disappointing ways to lose games, and Philip Rivers (downgrade) has been more a part of the problem than a part of the solution. His job security is at an all time low as well, as reports have him in danger of losing his job to Tyrod Taylor if he continues to struggle to finish the season. The Jags have unsurprisingly struggled more against the pass since trading Jalen Ramsey away, ranking 16th by pass DVOA and giving up the 14th most FPPG to QBs on the season, so the matchup isn’t intimidating. But Rivers simply doesn’t have the ceiling to be an option in 1QB leagues (over 22 points just twice this year), and should be viewed as more of a low-upside but solid QB2 this week. There are likely better streaming options unless you are in a deeper or superflex league.
After struggling through a scoreless streak from week 4-10, and failing to go over 100 yards during that same stretch, Keenan Allen has been on a nice bounce-back the past two weeks. While Rivers hasn’t been great, it would be hard to argue that a switch to Tyrod Taylor would be anything but a downgrade for Allen considering his longstanding chemistry with Rivers. The matchup is encouraging, as it is likely Mike Williams (slight downgrade) who will draw the majority of A.J. Bouye’s shadow coverage. The Jags have given up the 13th fewest FPPG to WRs and have the 16th ranked pass DVOA. Allen can be returned to firm WR2 status and should be in all lineups, while Williams gets a slight downgrade due to Bouye’s presence. The #2 WR in this offense doesn’t get great volume, but makes a big catch at least one or twice every game. He’s more of a risk-reward WR3, but does feel due for a TD sometime soon. Owners will have a tough decision to make with him. Hunter Henry disappointed in Week 13, posting 2 catches for 10 yards. Still, his target share is among the best for TEs during his active weeks, and his talent gives him weekly upside. The Jags are just above league average against TEs (11 fewest FPPG allowed). Get Henry in your lineup as an elite TE1, albeit one with a lower floor than you’d like.
RB Breakdown
This Chargers backfield has started to settle in and provide consistent value to both Melvin Gordon (upgrade) and Austin Ekeler (upgrade). Obviously Gordon is a slightly more valuable asset in standard leagues, and Ekeler is a more valuable asset in PPR leagues. This week, they’ll face a Jags squad that has been quite vulnerable to the run - 31st ranked run DVOA and 9th most FPPG allowed to RBs. Both are in play as high-end RB2s, especially in their preferred format. Get these guys active as you head into playoffs.

Jaguars

Opp (LAC) Pass DVOA: #22
Opp (LAC) Run DVOA: #24
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAC): LB Nick Dzubnar (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (JAX): TE Seth DeValve (D)
Key WCB matchups: DJ Chark vs. Casey Hayward (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): D.J. Chark (22%) Leonard Fournette (20%) Chris Conley (17%) Dede Westbrook (14%) Seth DeValve (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Leonard Fournette (89%, 23, 11) Ryquell Armstead (11%, 0, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
It looks like the Jags may have acted in haste when they decided to replace Blake Bortles with a high-priced Nick Foles in the offseason. His struggles since returning from injury got him benched in favor of rookie Gardner Minshew (slight downgrade) in the second half last week, and the move looks permanent. Minshew was named the starter for the rest of the year, so Foles becomes an obvious drop in all formats, and the rookie is back in play as a potential QB1/2 down the stretch. This week, he’ll face off against the Chargers - LA has given up the 7th fewest FPPG to QBs but has a bottom-third pass DVOA ranking. It’s best to view Minshew as a high-end QB2 this week; he’s capable of a big game and established a solid floor during his half season of starts, but the Chargers tend to limit shootouts and are more vulnerable to RBs than QBs for fantasy purposes. Don’t be surprised if the Jags pound the run rather than look for a gunslinger performance from Minshew Mania.
Jacksonville’s stud receiver DJ Chark (auto-start) has been removed from the injury report heading into Week 14, so he looks ready to re engage his connection with Minshew. Chark has been a TD machine this year, and regularly makes big plays with his speed as well, and Minshew targeted him heavily during his first starting stretch. Chark will likely face Casey Hayward in coverage most of the day, but the stud CB has been vulnerable at times and last week got burned for two TDs. Consider Chark ** on the WR1/2 borderline, and make sure he’s in all lineups. **Dede Westbrook (downgrade standard) and Chris Conley (downgrade PPR) have been solid supporting receivers in this offense, but neither has been able to carve out consistent fantasy value. Westbrook is the preferred play, as his slot role can lead to higher percentage throws, whereas Conley is much more big-play dependent. The Chargers have given up just the 4th most FPPG to WRs, so it’s tough to trust either in fantasy playoffs this week. Westbrook is a borderline WR3, with a bump in PPR leagues, and Conley is just a dart-throw WR4.
RB Breakdown
Always at the top of the weekly leaderboard in snaps, touches, and targets, Leonard Fournette (upgrade) is the definition of a volume-based RB1. That’s not to say he isn’t a talented back, but rather that the volume is what gives him the floor to stay in the RB1 range regardless of game flow or opponent. The Chargers are more vulnerable to the run than the pass, and give up the 8th most FPPG to RBs, so get Fournette active for what could be a week-winning performance.
Score Prediction: Jaguars 20, Chargers 17

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3)

Chiefs ATS: 7-5-1 Patriots ATS: 7-5-0
Projected Team Totals: Chiefs 22.75 Patriots 25.75

Chiefs

Opp (NE) Pass DVOA: #2
Opp (NE) Run DVOA: #7
Injuries to Watch DEF (NE): S Patrick Chung (Q) DT Byron Cowart (Q) CB Jason McCourty (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (KC): RB Damien Williams (OUT) RB Darrel Williams (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: Sammy Watkins vs. Stephon Gillmore (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Tyreek Hill (26%) Travis Kelce (23%) Sammy Watkins (18%) LeSean McCoy (11%) Demarcus Robinson (15%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Darwin Thompson (36%, 11, 0) LeSean McCoy (36%, 8, 3) Darrel Williams (27%, 7, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The fireworks from likely MVP Lamar Jackson this season have served to overshadow almost all other QBs so far this year. While Patrick Mahomes (slight downgrade) hasn’t been as dominant as last year, and missed two and a half games to injury, he is still putting up big numbers when it’s required of him. Last week against the Raiders his defense and running game did the heavy lifting, leading to a disappointing final line. The Patriots will be a tough matchup - 2nd ranked pass DVOA and fewest FPPG to QBs - but he’s more likely to be called upon for a big game as the Patriots should be able to score points and potentially shut down the Chiefs run game. It was encouraging to see Deshaun Watson do serious damage to the Pats last week, and Mahomes should be given the benefit of the doubt as an auto-start QB1 in almost all leagues. He gets a slight matchup downgrade, but shouldn’t be benched unless owners have a top-3 elite QB1 alternative.
The Chiefs receivers were victim to game-script last week, as Tyreek Hill (auto-start) disappointed, and Sammy Watkins (downgrade) went catchless. Travis Kelce (auto-start) led the way with a solid 5-90-0 line, and should obviously continue to be plugged in as a top-3 TE1. Watkins has been a tough own this year, breaking out early and then fading hard before bottoming out last week. He’s likely to see a lot of Stephon Gillmore this weekend, and the Patriots give up the fewest FPPG to WRs, so Watkins can’t be viewed as more than a big-play dependent WR4 this week. Hill may not get Gillmore, but will likely see some creative defensive schemes from Bill Bellicheck to try and limit his production. While this strategy could work to force Mahomes into feeding Kelce and looking more at Watkins in 1 on 1 with Gillmore, Hill has too much talent and upside to be benched in any format. When Mahomes is throwing him the ball, Hill is an elite WR1 every week. No other Chiefs pass-catchers can be considered fantasy relevant at this point, especially in such a tough matchup.
RB Breakdown
If you thought this backfield was a mess early in the season, it was absolute chaos in Week 13. However, we have reached some unfortunate clarity, as both Darrel Williams (IR- out for season) and Damien Williams (likely out) have moved out of the way. That leaves LeSean McCoy and rookie **Darwin Thompson. Thompson led the backfield last week (11 touches), and should be heavily involved again this week. McCoy saw only 8 total touches. Both backs are in a tough spot against the Pats, who have given up the fewest FPPG to RBs this year. Consider McCoy a risky RB2/3, and Thompson an upside but risky RB3/flex option. Both backs should probably be avoided in this awful spot with limited information about their role, but with only the two fighting for snaps, both should be universally owned in all leagues. Thompson has some intriguing end of season upside considering his fresh legs and impressive pre-season showcase.

Patriots

Opp (KC) Pass DVOA: #6
Opp (KC) Run DVOA: #30
Injuries to Watch DEF (KC): CB Morris Claiborne (OUT) CB Rashad Fenton (OUT) DE Frank Clark (Q) S Jordan Lucas (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NE): OT Marcus Cannon (Q) WR Julian Edelman (Q) C Ted Karras (Q) WR Mohamed Sanu (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Julian Edelman (26%) Mohamed Sanu (16%) James White (14%) Phillip Dorsett (12%) Jakobi Meyers (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: James White (78%, 22, 11) Sony Michel (17%, 10, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Patriots lack of trustworthy receiving weapons is finally beginning to cost this team in terms of wins and losses. There are other factors in play, but Tom Brady (volume upgrade) has slowed down through the middle of the season (until last week) and is definitely missing Rob Gronkowski (retirement) and Antonio Brown (retirement..?). This week, he’ll get a Chiefs defense that is much improved from last year, and now ranks as the #6 pass defense by DVOA. They give up the 12th most FPPG to QBs on the year, and their offense is capable of creating shootout conditions, so this isn’t exactly a shy-away matchup. Consider Brady on the QB1/2 borderline, and hope that Mahomes is able to be as successful as Watson last week in piercing the Pats defense, so that Brady is forced into a high-volume passing day.
So let’s talk about those “mediocre” pass-game options that seem to be the main weakness of this Pats squad. Julian Edelman (auto-start) has continued to be a consistent fantasy force this year, and is a no-doubt WR1 at this point (especially in PPR leagues). Mohamed Sanu (downgrade, injury) is questionable to play, and in his return last week played only a part-time role and went 3-14-0. If closer to 100% this week, he looks like the best #2 option the Pats have, but it’s tough to trust that will actually be the case. He’s no more than an upside WR4 this week, unless we get more clarity on his injury status (unlikely in Bellicheck’s world). Sanu’s limited snaps led to increased time for Phillip Dorsett (71% snaps) and Jakobi Meyers (70%), while N’Keal Harry (25%) took a backseat (Rotoworld). None of these three are appealing fantasy options, especially with Sanu possibly increasing his snaps. The Chiefs are much improved against the pass - 6th best pass DVOA and 3rd fewest FPPG to WRs - so only Edelman should be in lineups as owners enter fantasy playoffs.
RB Breakdown
Playing from behind most of last week’s game, the Pats turned to James White (upgrade) for a majority of the snaps. He predictably shined in the passing game, but some of it was due to prevent defense in the fourth quarter. Sony Michel (upgrade standard) took a backseat once again, and this highlights the risk of starting a player so game-script dependent. The Chiefs should have some success offensively, so White is the safe option, and in PPR leagues he’s the only option. Michel has some value in standard leagues, but is just so tough to trust.. The Chiefs have given up the most FPPG to RBs on the season, so both Michel and White can claim a matchup upgrade. Consider White a solid RB2 with an upgrade in PPR leagues, and Michel a risk-reward RB3/flex, with an obvious downgrade in PPR leagues. Rex Burkhead is not on the radar at this point.
Score Prediction: Chiefs 21, Patriots 17

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Steelers ATS: 8-4-0 Cardinals ATS: 7-4-1
Projected Team Totals: Steelers 23 Cardinals 20.5

Steelers

Opp (ARI) Pass DVOA: #29
Opp (ARI) Run DVOA: #16
Injuries to Watch DEF (ARI): DL Jonathan Bullard (IR) S Jalen Thompson (Q) CB Kevin Peterson (Q) CB Byron Murphy (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (PIT): WR JuJu Smith-Schuster (OUT) RB James Conner (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: James Washington vs. Patrick Peterson (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Jaylen Samuels (19%) James Washington (16%) Diontae Johnson (15%) Juju Smith-Schuster (15%) Vance McDonald (14%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Jaylen Samuels (55%, 9, 2) Benny Snell (37%, 17, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Without their starting quarterback, running back, and star receiver, the Steelers are still in the playoff hunt. It’s truly impressive, and Mike Tomlin deserves a ton of credit for reworking the offense to his personal’s strengths. Devlin Hodges (upgrade) as looked decent through two games, and it appears the Steelers will ride with him the rest of the season. A glaring issue for those looking to use this passing game is the lack of volume. Hodges has attempted just 20 and 21 passes in two games, and that doesn’t look to be changing as the Steelers will attempt to limit his mistakes. He’s not an option even in the deepest of formats.
James Washington (downgrade) has crushed with Juju Smith-Schuster sidelined, but again, the glaring issue is volume. He’s been targeted just 11 times the last two games, turning the limited opportunities into 7-209-2. It’s a completely unsustainable pace, and he’s due a down week. There’s a chance that CB Patrick Peterson isn’t asked to shadow him, brightening his outlook, but no matter which way it’s looked at, volume and matchup are working against him. Consider him an upside WR3, he’s still the No. 1 passing option for the Steelers. Diontae Johnson and the other wideouts can be safely faded. Vance McDonald has disappointed over recent weeks, but now he finds himself in a dream matchup. He needs to be locked into all lineups - Arizona literally cannot guard the position - hemorrhaging 14.7 FPPG to tight ends.
RB Breakdown
With James Connor injured, the Steelers have turned to a RBBC featuring Jaylen Samuels (upgrade PPR) and Benny Snell Jr. (upgrade standard). The Cardinals have been much better against the run than the pass, but this isn’t a world beating defense and it’s likely the Steelers find the end zone via the ground. Snell makes for a good bet to find paydirt and should be considered a volume based RB2. Samuels is a riskier proposition, his volume has waned in recent weeks as Snell has become more involved. Still, he saw 55% of snaps last week, and should be considered a decent flex option in PPR formats. Just don’t start him over established options.

Cardinals

Opp (PIT) Pass DVOA: #4
Opp (PIT) Run DVOA: #5
Injuries to Watch DEF (PIT): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (ARI): OL A.Q. Shipley (Q) OL Max Garcia (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
**Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Christian Kirk (25%) Kenyan Drake (17%) Larry Fitzgerald (16%) Damiere Byrd (12%) Chase Edmonds (12%) Pharoh Cooper (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Kenyan Drake (80%, 15, 5) David Johnson (23%, 6, 2) Chase Edmonds (0%, 0, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Last week was the worst football this Cardinal team has played, outside of the first half of Week 1. Kyler Murray still managed to find his floor with a rushing touchdown. He’s been solid all year, and is deserving of a pass. Still, the matchup this week doesn’t get much better. PIT cedes just 14.7 FPPG to QBs and 21.1 FPPG to RBs. Consider Murray a low-end QB1, he’s been good enough against elite defenses (49ers) to be considered matchup proof. There is some concern with the offensive line, as they were completely destroyed by the Rams pass rush, and Pittsburgh’s T.J. Watt is no slouch.
Murray only completing 19 of 34 passes for 163 scoreless yards in the loss last week, so obviously the rest of the offense busted as well. Christian Kirk saw 7 targets, but only managed 23-yards. He’s due for a bounce back, but the matchup is working against him - the Steelers are near the top in a number of defensive metrics including DVOA (No. 4), interceptions (No. 2), and net yards allowed per pass attempt (No. 4) (Rotoworld). Larry Fitzgerald has a massive size advantage over slot CB Mike Hilton (Rotoworld), but it’s still an extremely tough matchup for the veteran wideout - Hilton is PFF’s No. 31 coverage corner. Consider both boom-or-bust WR3’s this week, it’s more likely that they bust in the tough matchup, but stranger things have happened. The auxiliary passing game options in this offense shouldn’t be considered, including tight end’s Maxx Williams and Charles Clay.
RB Breakdown
I’m still having a hard time wrapping my head around David Johnson’s demotion. His fall from grace was swift, and I still think there’s something going on behind the scenes that Kliff Kingsbury isn’t letting the world in on (injury). Either way, he simply cannot be trusted in fantasy playoffs while Kenyan Drake (downgrade) continues to dominate snaps and touches. However, DJ received his highest snap count since the Drake trade, and it appears the backfield may be headed for a RBBC. Neither Drake nor DJ are good options in the tough matchup - PIT gives up just 14.7 FPPG to RBs - but Drake gets the edge due to volume, he’s a back-end RB2.
Score Prediction: Cardinals 24, Steelers 20

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Oakland Raiders

Titans ATS: 6-5-1 Raiders ATS: 6-6-0
Projected Team Totals: Titans 25 Raiders 22.5

Titans

Opp (OAK) Pass DVOA: #28
Opp (OAK) Run DVOA: #26
Injuries to Watch DEF (OAK): LB Kyle Wilber (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (TEN): WR Adam Humphries (OUT) WR Tajae Sharpe (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): A.J. Brown (18%) Jonnu Smith (15%) Corey Davis (14%) Adam Humphries (12%) Anthony Firkser (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Derrick Henry (75%, 29, 3) Dion Lewis (18%, 1, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Somewhat surprisingly, Ryan Tannehill (upgrade) is quietly playing himself into being the Titans QB of the future, at least on a short-term basis. Since taking over as the starter in Week 7, the Titans are 5-1, and Tannehill himself has put up efficient and quality statistical performances. This week he gets a juicy matchup with a leaky Raiders secondary giving up the 4th most FPPG to QBs on the year. It’s also a positive that the Titans are on the road and only a 2.5 point favorite; a close game where the Raiders can put up points is the best case for a big Tannehill fantasy day. Consider him a solid QB1 this week, and plug him into your lineups unless you have an auto-start option ahead of him with a similarly good matchup.
The fact that we’re recommending Tannehill as a great option this week means there must be some value to squeeze out of the pass-catchers, right? A.J. Brown (upgrade) and Corey Davis (drop) form an extremely athletic WR duo, but neither has been able to fully break out this year. But of the two, Brown has become by the more appealing option. Davis has only two games over 7 points (.5 PPR) all year, and has all but disappeared over the past few weeks. Brown has been inconsistent as well, but showed his upside in Week 12 with his 4-135-1 line. The matchup is a plus this week - the Raiders give up the 14th most FPPG to WRs but have a bottom-tier pass DVOA. Considering the target distribution the past 6 weeks, Brown can be viewed as a risk-reward WR3, and Davis is a low-ceiling WR4. Normal slot WR Adam Humphries has been ruled out for Week 14 with an ankle injury, so Tajae Sharpe should see some extra run, but he’s not on the fantasy radar. At TE, Jonnu Smith (TE2 streamer) gets a boost with Humphries out, and Delanie Walker out for the year. The Raiders are vulnerable to TEs as well - giving up the 6th most FPPG to the position this season. Consider Smith an upside TE2 streamer, albeit a risky one considering his floor is a big fat goose-egg.

RB Breakdown

It’s time to stop calling Derrick Henry (upgrade, good) a “boom-bust” or “TD-dependent” fantasy option, even in PPR leagues. Yes, he can struggle when the Titans go pass-heavy, but that hasn’t happened much since Tannehill took over. Henry was once again dominant last week, and has pushed Dion Lewis to minimal usage. The Raiders give up the 11th most FPPG to RBs, and have been abysmal as a team the past two games. It looks like Henry could once again face neutral or positive game-script, so get him fired up as an RB1 this week. Lewis doesn’t need to be rostered.

Raiders

Opp (TEN) Pass DVOA: #24
Opp (TEN) Run DVOA: #4
Injuries to Watch DEF (TEN): LB Daren Bates (OUT) CB Adoree Jackson (OUT) CB LeShaun Sims (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (OAK): RB Josh Jacobs (Q, likely to play) OT Trent Brown (OUT) WR Hunter Renfrow (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Darren Waller (20%) Hunter Renfrow (17%) Tyrell Williams (16%) Jalen Richard (11%) Zay Jones (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Josh Jacobs (57%, 17, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Week 13 was rock bottom for Derek Carr (downgrade), and his pick-6 meant that he gave the Chiefs as many points as he gave the Raiders (one offensive TD). Carr had been having a nice bounce-back year through the first 12 weeks, and was leading the Raiders into a surprising potential playoff spot. He’s regressed significantly the past two weeks though, and the Raiders offense is suddenly a liability. The Titans aren’t stout against the pass - 24th ranked pass DVOA and 14th fewest FPPG to QBs - but Carr is not on the streaming radar. Leave him on the wire.
We hope you sold high on Tyrell Williams (downgrade PPR) while you could, because he’s likely sitting on waiver wires at this point in the season. He hasn’t scored since week 8, and has gone over 50 yards just three times this year. He’s still technically the “#1 WR”, but TE Darren Waller (upgrade) is getting a much higher target share on the season. The matchup isn’t imposing for Williams - bottom-third pass DVOA and 13th most FPPG to WRs - but he can’t be viewed as more than a TD-dependent WR3/4. Waller is an easy elite TE1, and the Titans giving up the 8th most FPPG to TEs gives owners an extra boost of confidence. No other Raiders pass-catcher is on the radar at this point.
RB Breakdown
News broke this week that Josh Jacobs (upgrade standard) may be playing through a fracture in his shoulder. While that is an impressive show of toughness, it may be a part of why he still cedes all passing down work to Jalen Richard, and loses a few carries to DeAndre Washington each week. Still, Jacobs has shown impressive strength, speed, and balance, and is the Raiders best hope for a home win to break their recent skid. Expect him to get the ball early and often assuming he’s not limited by the injury. The Titans are solid against the run - 4th best DVOA but 13th most FPPG to RBs - but the bigger key is that the Raiders just play better football this week. View him as a high-end RB2 in standard leagues, with a downgrade in PPR leagues. Monitor the injury reports, but if he’s out there he should likely be in all lineups. Richard and Washington are off the fantasy radar, unless Jacobs ends up missing the game.
Score Prediction: Titans 24, Raiders 20

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams

Seahawks ATS: 7-5-0 Rams ATS: 8-4-0
Projected Team Totals: Seahawks 24.5 Rams 22

Seahawks

Opp (LAR) Pass DVOA: #12
Opp (LAR) Run DVOA: #3
Injuries to Watch DEF (LAR): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (SEA): FB Nick Bellore (D) TE Luke Wilson (D)
Key WCB matchups: Tyler Lockett vs. Jalen Ramsey (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): D.K. Metcalf (24%) Tyler Lockett (22%) David Moore (10%) Chris Carson (9%) Josh Gordon (6%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Chris Carson (52%, 24, 2) Rashaad Penny (47%, 19, 5)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Don’t bet against Russell Wilson (downgrade) and the Seahawks at home. You will lose. A week 17 showdown with the 49ers for the NFC West looms in the distance, get it circled on your calendar, it’s must watch TV. On tap is a matchup against a defense that just shut down the probable rookie of the year at home. Russell is a must-start regardless of matchup, but keep expectations tempered - the Rams defense gives up 17 FPPG to QBs and 20.6 to WRs.
Tyler Lockett (downgrade) was goose egged last week, and now has three disappointing outings in a row since going supernova against TB. Things aren’t getting easier, as he’ll face shadow coverage from stud CB Jalen Ramsey. You likely are starting Lockett regardless of matchup, but again, temper expectations. He’s more of a back-end WR2 this week. D.K. Metcalf has played an every down role along with Lockett, and continues to thrive. With Lockett shadowed, Metcalf may be the recipient of a few extra opportunities, he’s an upside WR3. Josh Gordon simply isn’t playing enough to warrant fantasy consideration (38% snap rate). Jacob Hollister has taken over as the full time TE for this potent SEA offense. Only Metcalf saw more targets last week, Hollister is an every-week TE1. Fire him up, but be aware the matchup isn’t great - LAR cedes just 7.3 FPPG to TEs.
RB Breakdown
Many thought that Chris Carson (downgrade volume) might be relegated to a backup role due to his fumbling issues, but both he and Rashaad Penny (downgrade matchup) received monster touches last week. It’s unlikely that SEA is able to run 39 times again, so it’ll be interesting to see how the touches are divided in this RBBC. Penny deserves flex consideration, and has looked solid the last few weeks. Carson continues to thrive and find the endzone, but with Penny in the picture, he’s no longer a sure-fire RB1. The matchup isn’t good this week, as the Rams boasts a top-3 Run DVOA and only give up 18 FPPG to RBs.

Rams

Opp (SEA) Pass DVOA: #13
Opp (SEA) Run DVOA: #18
Injuries to Watch DEF (SEA): CB Neiko Thorpe (OUT) LB Mychal Kendricks (D) DE Ziggy Ansah (Q) DE Jadeveon Clowny (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (LAR): T Rob Havenstein (D) TE Gerald Everett (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Robert Woods (26%) Cooper Kupp (19%) Josh Reynolds (15%) Gerald Everett (14%) Tyler Higbee (12%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Todd Gurley (68%, 20, 1) Malcolm Brown (23%, 6, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Rams turned back the clock in a blowout win against ARI, looking like the 2018 super bowl contender they once were. Jared Goff (upgrade) put together his second best outing of the season, throwing for 424-yards and two touchdowns. On tap is a fantasy friendly SEA team that will possibly be missing their top pass rushers in DE Ziggy Ansah and DE Jadeveon Clowny. If either or both were to sit, it improves Goff’s outlook considerably. He has been abysmal under pressure. SEA cedes 18.1 FPPG to QBs and 21.6 to WRs.
It was Robert Woods (upgrade) who saw massive targets last week (18), not Cooper Kupp (upgrade). This will likely even out moving forward, and both can be considered WR2’s in the good matchup. Brandin Cooks has remained a big play away from breaking out, but due to that and his low target’s, he’s hard to trust as more than a feast-or-famine WR4. Fade him if you can. Only ARI and TB allow more points to the tight end than SEA, so with Gerald Everett sideline, Tyler Higbee can be considered a true TE1. Consider streaming him if you are weak at the position - SEA cedes 9.7 FPPG to TEs.
RB Breakdown
Todd Gurley was back to receiving the lion's share of touches after barely seeing any against BAL on MNF. Chalk the BAL game up to anomaly as the Rams were forced to abandon the ground game in a failed comeback bid. As long as Gurley is seeing the volume, he’s a back-end RB1. SEA gives up 17 FPPG to the position, get him active.
Score Prediction: Rams 24, Seahawks 21

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)

Giants ATS: 4-8-0 Eagles ATS: 4-8-0
Projected Team Totals: Giants 19.25 Eagles 27.75

Giants

Opp (PHI) Pass DVOA: #15
Opp (PHI) Run DVOA: #8
Injuries to Watch DEF (PHI): LB Kamu Grugier-Hill (OUT) DE Derek Barnett (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NYG): QB Daniel Jones (OUT) TE Rhett Ellison (OUT) TE Evan Engram (OUT)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Sterling Shepard (22%) Darius Slayton (21%) Golden Tate (20%) Evan Engram (18%) Saquon Barkley (17%) Kaden Smith (13%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Saquon Barkley (96%, 22, 7)
QB/WTE Breakdown
On the verge of getting all of his offensive weapons back, in a cruel comedic twist, Daniel Jones is now injured and will sit for MNF. Enter Eli Manning. He’s on the verge of retiring, so it’s likely this is the last, or one of the last times we see Manning play. He’s not an option, even in a great matchup. We simply don’t know which Eli will show up, although his teammates have mentioned that he’s been crushing in practice (what else are they supposed to say?).
Evan Engram has been ruled out along with fellow tight end Rhett Ellison, leaving Golden Tate (upgrade), Sterling Shepard (upgrade) and Darius Slayton as the main targets. Shepard and Manning have a connection going back a few years, so he’s likely going to be the main target - consider him an upside WR3. Tate will man the slot and likely be the beneficiary of Engram’s absence. Still there are a lot of mouths to feed, so he’s more of a low-end WR3 with an upgrade in PPR. Rookie Slayton has filled in admirably with the injuries to the receiving corps, but with everyone healthy, he’s a feast-or-famine WR4. The matchup is exploitable, look at what DeVante Parker did to PHI secondary last week - they cede 27.4 FPPG to WRs. That being said, the Philly secondary was dealing with a myriad of injuries in the early going, so this isn’t the smash spot it once was. Kaden Smith will play an every down role with Engram and Ellison out, but with everyone healthy demanding targets, he’s just a middling TE2.
RB Breakdown
Saquon Barkley’s (downgrade) campaign of disappointment continued last week in a blowout home loss to the Packers. Although he put up one of his better performances in 2019, rushing for 83-scoreless yards, it’s still not what we’ve come to expect of the beast running back. On tap is another difficult matchup, PHI boasts a top-10 Run DVOA, and gives up just 15.9 FPPG to RBs. You aren’t sitting Barkley, but don’t expect a world beating performance. We can hope with Manning under center that he’s utilized more in the passing game.

Eagles

Opp (NYG) Pass DVOA: #30
Opp (NYG) Run DVOA: #11
Injuries to Watch DEF (NYG): CB Corey Ballentine (OUT)
Injuries to Watch OFF (PHI): RB Jordan Howard (Q) WR Nelson Agholor (GTD)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Alshon Jeffery (28%) Zach Ertz (24%) Nelson Agholor (18%) Dallas Goedert (16%) Miles Sanders (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Miles Sanders (87%, 22, 5) Jay Ajayi (13%, 2, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Giants secondary is a great get right spot for Carson Wentz, who hasn’t performed at the same level since his season ending knee injury during the 2018 season. Consider him a rock solid QB1 - the Giants cede 21.2 FPPG to QBs and 28.4 to WRs.
Outside of Alshon Jeffery (upgrade), the auxiliary wideouts for PHI can’t be considered, even in the great matchup. Jeffery himself is coming off his best performance of the season against MIA, but he’s largely been touchdown dependent, only clearing 100-yards once. He’s a good bet to find the end zone again against a hapless NYG team, so consider him an upside WR3. Dallas Goedert and Zach Ertz have been the main targets in the passing game, and both can be considered TE1’s in the great matchup. Ertz is still dealing with a nagging hammy, but he still managed to post a 75% snap rate last week (Rotoworld). He’s due a big week, so fire him up - but be aware that NYG cedes just 5.5 FPPG to TEs. Ultimately, that stat may be irrelevant as the Giants haven’t faced a pair like Goedert and Ertz.
RB Breakdown
It’s expected that Jordan Howard sits again this week, leaving rookie Miles Sanders (upgrade volume) and recently signed veteran Jay Ajayi to carry the load. Sanders has vaulted himself into the back-end RB1 conversation when handling the lion's share of the work. He’s looked great in both the running and passing game, and should be locked into most lineups - NYG cedes 17.9 FPPG to RBs. Ajayi can be left on the wire.
Score Prediction: Eagles 30, Giants 20

Week 14 Matchup Strategy Guide - Part 1

Part 1 of 3

Part 2 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-14-matchup-strategy-guide-part-2

Part 3 Right Here: https://dfaroto.com/nfl/week-14-matchup-strategy-guide-part-3**

GLOSSARY

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Chicago Bears

Cowboys ATS: 7-5-0 Bears ATS: 3-9-0
Projected Team Totals: Cowboys 22.75 Bears 19.75

Cowboys

Opp (CHI) Pass DVOA: #8
Opp (CHI) Run DVOA: #12
Injuries to Watch DEF (CHI): CB Prince Amukamara (D) LB Danny Trevathan (D)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DAL): RB Tony Pollard (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Amari Cooper (20%) Michael Gallup (20%) Randall Cobb (16%) Jason Witten (16%) Ezekiel Elliot (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Ezekiel Elliott (88%, 19, 10) Tony Pollard (14%, 3, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Dallas was thoroughly embarrassed at home on Turkey day by an increasingly playoff bound BUF squad. That feels odd to say because before last year, BUF had gone 17 years without making the playoffs, the longest drought in professional sports. I digress, Dak Prescott played decently well against a tough BUF secondary, but ultimately turnovers and missed field goals killed DAL is the end. DAL draws another tough matchup, but the CHI defense isn’t as ferocious as it once was earlier in the season. It appears that similar to last year with JAX, it’s difficult to give your all on defense when it’s known that your offense can’t move the ball. Either way, Dak should be treated as a low-end QB1 - CHI is only giving up 14.3 FPPG to QBs and 17.5 to WRs.
Amari Cooper (downgrade) is now riding a stretch of 3 disappointing performances in a row, having yet to find the endzone or clear 100-yards receiving since Week 10. A glaring concern is his target share, he’s not drawing the lion’s share à la Michael Thomas or Davante Adams. Instead, Randall Cobb and Michael Gallup are eating into his targets, with Gallup seeing the exact same percentage as Cooper over the last six weeks. Add to the mix that Cooper has been awful away from the friendly confines of the house that Jerry built (Rotoworld), and we have the recipe for another disappointing outing. Don’t bench Coop, but don’t expect a world beating performance either. He’s more a WR2 this week, with Cobb and Gallup being relegated to WR3 status. Jason Witten has continued to turn back the clock this year, but he’s really not an option outside of deeper leagues - consider him a touchdown dependent TE2.
RB Breakdown
For reasons unknown, Jason Garrett’s game plan last week involved mostly passing against one of the best secondaries in the league, instead of running the ball against one of the worst rush defenses. Ezekiel Elliot (downgrade) still gobbled up 71-yards on the ground on only 12 carries, while putting up an additional 66-yards on 7 catches. Zeke is a matchup proof RB1, but again draws a matchup that projects tough sledding - CHI only gives up 18.1 FPPG to RBs. Tony Pollard needs to be rostered for fantasy playoffs, whether you own Zeke or not.

Bears

Opp (DAL) Pass DVOA: #23
Opp (DAL) Run DVOA: #17
Injuries to Watch DEF (DAL): S Jeff Heath (Q) LB Leighton Vander Esch (D) DT Antwaun Woods (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (CHI): WR Taylor Gabriel (D) TE Ben Braunecker (D) OT Bobby Massie (D)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Allen Robinson (24%) Anthony Miller (19%) Taylor Gabriel (19%) Tarik Cohen (15%) David Montgomery (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: David Montgomery (62%, 18, 2) Tarik Cohen (55%, 7, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown
In the second matchup on Turkey day, Mitchell Trubisky (downgrade) had one of his best outings of the season against an ailing DET team, throwing for 338-yards and three touchdowns with only one interception. It’s likely not a performance that can be replicated, and he’s not a trustworthy option for any format, outside of extremely deep 2QB leagues.
Surprisingly, it was not Allen Robinson that led the Bears in receiving last week, but Anthony Miller, who has taken full advantage of Taylor Gabriel’s absence. Don’t go chasing waterfalls, as Trubisky has only cleared 250-yards passing in four games this year. This offense has only been able to support one receiver, and DAL has been particularly stingy against the pass, even with a bottom-10 Pass DVOA - only giving up 18.5 FPPG to WRs. Miller has earned himself every week WR4 treatment, but outside of deeper formats, he seems like a wish, especially with the fantasy season on the line. Allen Robinson is matchup proof and belongs in all lineups, but temper expectations this week, he’s more a WR2 in the tough matchup. Don’t consider using J.P Holtz or Bradley Sowell as a TE streamer, just don’t.
RB Breakdown
If you drafted David Montgomery (upgrade) in the first five rounds, you didn’t get the season you were hoping for. That can be partially attributed to CHI not living up to expectations as a team, but also to Matt Nagy’s insistence on using a RBBC with Mike Davis, or deciding to pass instead of using one of their best offensive weapons. Either way, Dmont is the RB20 in .5 PPR formats, which while is still a bust, is something to build on for next year. It’s very possible he becomes a post-hype sleeper, and I’ll personally be looking to draft him at a discounted rate next year. DAL gives up 18.1 FPPG to RBs, and it’s likely that CHI has positive or neutral game-script at home, so Montgomery should see plenty of work. Get him fired up as a solid RB2. The human joystick, Tarik Cohen, simply isn’t seeing the volume to be trusted. He’s better suited to PPR formats, but he’s just a big play dependent RB3 in all formats and should be left on the bench.
Score Prediction: Bears 17, Cowboys 13

Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at Buffalo Bills

Ravens ATS: 6-6-0 Bills ATS: 8-3-1
Projected Team Totals: Ravens 24.5 Bills 19

Ravens

Opp (BUF) Pass DVOA: #5
Opp (BUF) Run DVOA: #22
Injuries to Watch DEF (BUF): None
Injuries to Watch OFF (BAL): TE Nick Boyle (Q) WR Seth Roberts (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Marquise Brown vs. Tre’Davious White (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Mark Andrews (20%) Marquise Brown (18%) Nick Boyle (13%) Willie Snead (11%) Hayden Hurst (9%) Mark Ingram (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Mark Ingram (55%, 17, 2) Gus Edwards (38%, 7, 1) Justice Hill (6%, 1, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
It’s clear now, the Baltimore Ravens are the best team in the NFL. With victories over the Seahawks, Patriots, and 49ers, there is nothing left to prove. SF was able to give them their closest game of the season, but even the best defensive line in the game couldn’t stop Lamar Jackson (upgrade) from converting short yardage situations. Jackson needs just 63-yards rushing to break Michael Vick’s record of most rushing yards in a season by a quarterback - going against a bottom-10 Run DVOA in BUF seems like just the place to do it. BUF cedes just 13.1 FPPG to QBs and just 17.5 FPPG to WRs - but Lamar is immune to things we mere mortals would consider imposing - fire him up as THE QB1.
No receiver or tight end saw more than six targets last week, and Mark Andrews and Hayden Hurst finished tied for the most receptions, with just three. Outside of Andrews, it’s extremely difficult to predict where the volume is going week-to-week, so it’s likely best not to start a BAL wideout - especially going against one of the best secondaries in the league. Marquise Brown (downgrade) is the only WR worth consideration in this offense, and he draws a difficult matchup against CB Tre’Davious White, who has won most of his shadow dates this season (Rotoworld). Consider Brown a boom-or-bust WR3, and I’d really only consider playing him if you have no other option, or you are playing a team in fantasy playoffs with a high projected point total and need the boom week over consistency.
RB Breakdown
The RB9 on the season in .5 PPR, Mark Ingram (upgrade) has been an absolute steal at his ADP. Although he’s not seeing huge volume, and he has been vultured by Lamar Jackson on a regular basis at the goal line. Although, this offense is generating enough points for Ingram and Jackson to co-exist. Ingram has 12 touchdowns on the year, 9 rushing and 3 receiving, and there’s no reason to see him slowing down in the explosive BAL offense. On tap is a matchup with a bottom-10 Run DVOA - BUF is ceding 18.3 FPPG to RBs - get Ingram active as an RB1. Gus Edwards is Ingram’s true handcuff, not rookie Justice Hill, and he should be rostered by Ingram owners for fantasy playoffs.

Bills

Opp (BAL) Pass DVOA: #3
Opp (BAL) Run DVOA: #25
Injuries to Watch DEF (BAL): S Earl Thomas (P) CB Jimmy Smith (P) CB Marlon Humphrey (P) ILB Patrick Onwuasor (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (BUF): OT Ty Nsekhe (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): John Brown (27%) Cole Beasley (20%) Devin Singletary (13%) Isaiah McKenzie (13%) Dawson Knox (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Devin Singletary (78%, 17, 4) Frank Gore (22%, 10, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
BUF vs. BAL is the matchup of two QBs who were told that they could never play the position at the highest level. So far, both Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen have exceeded expectations in the NFL. Although BAL now boasts a top-3 secondary - and only gives up 13.1 FPPG to QBs, and 20.8 FPPG to WRs - Allen’s willingness to get it done with his legs warrants every week QB1 treatment. I’d temper expectations a bit, but unless you have a top-5 QB option, it’s likely best to roll with Allen at home this week.
Smokey John Brown (downgrade) has been an absolute stud this season and is on pace to eclipse the 1,000-yard mark, something that hasn’t been done for BUF since Sammy Watkins in 2015 (pro-football-reference). Brown gets a downgrade this week facing off against a trio of stud Cornerbacks - Marcus Peters is PFF’s No. 5 CB, Marlon Humphrey is No. 30, and Jimmy Smith is No. 40 - Brown is more a WR2 in the tough matchup. Cole Beasley (downgrade) has exploded the last few weeks, but it’s the same story as Brown, going against stud CB Humphrey in the slot projects as a floor week for Beasley. He should be considered a low-end WR3 that is better suited for PPR formats. Dawson Knox has had some exciting moments in his rookie season, but can’t be relied upon on a weekly basis. Leave him on the wire.
RB Breakdown
The Devin Singletary breakout has been full steam ahead since Week 9 against WAS, and the rookie has received more than 15 touches in every game except for one since then. Frank Gore will continue to be a thorn in his side, but Singletary can be safely treated as a weekly flex option. Unfortunately, against BAL is tough sledding - they only cede 17 FPPG to RBs. Plus, it’s likely that BUF faces negative game-script and is forced to abandon the run. Singletary has shown passing game chops, so he’s decently matchup proof, just temper expectations in the tough matchup.
Score Prediction: Ravens 27, Bills 17

Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-13)

Redskins ATS: 5-7-0 Packers ATS: 8-4-0
Projected Team Totals: Redskins 14.5 Packers 27.5

Redskins

Opp (GB) Pass DVOA: #18
Opp (GB) Run DVOA: #28
Injuries to Watch DEF (GB): CB Tramon Williams (P) CB Kevin King (Q) CB Tony Brown (Q) DT Tyler Lancaster (Q) ILB Blake Martinez (Q) S Will Redmond (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (WAS): WR Trey Quinn (D) WR Paul Richardson (Q) G Brandon Scherff (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Terry McLaurin (24%) Kelvin Harmon (15%) Paul Richardson (15%) Jeremy Sprinkle (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Derrius Guice (30%, 12, 3) Adrian Peterson (36%, 13, 1) Chris Thompson (36%, 4, 2)
QB/WTE Breakdown
Washington has now found its way into the win column three times this season, including back-to-back wins against DET and somehow CAR. Regardless, Dwayne Haskins is not a fantasy option.
The decline of Terry McLaurin (downgrade) has been scary fast, as he hasn’t cleared 75-yards receiving in six consecutive games, and has six or fewer targets in five of his six last games (Rotoworld). This passing game is one to steer clear of for fantasy playoffs. Don’t do it.
RB Breakdown
Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice (upgrade) continue to split carries, and between the two, Guice has more upside. Unfortunately, with the RBBC and Chris Thompson being healthy, there may not be enough volume to count on. Guice has received just 11 and 12 touches since coming back from injury, and although he’s made the most of them, as long as all three running backs are in the mix, it will be hard to rely on any of them. This week presents a great opportunity - GB cedes 22.1 FPPG to RBs - but even with the great matchup, it’s likely that WAS faces a negative game-script and is forced to abandon the run, limiting the ceiling of Guice. Consider Guice a back-end RB2 with upside, Peterson a middling RB3, and Thompson a waiver-wire change of pace back.

Packers

Opp (WAS) Pass DVOA: #20
Opp (WAS) Run DVOA: #19
Injuries to Watch DEF (WAS): LB Ryan Anderson (Q) LB Montez Sweat (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (GB): OT Bryan Bulaga (Q) TE Jimmy Graham (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Davante Adams (32%) Jamaal Williams (13%) Allen Lazard (12%) Aaron Jones (11%) Jimmy Graham (9%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Aaron Jones (58%, 15, 6) Jamaal Williams (42%, 14, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown
In a game bogged down by snowy conditions, Aaron Rodgers (upgrade) turned in an impressive performance against the sub-par New York Giants defense. This week, he’ll return home to face the Redskins, who are slightly below average in both DVOA (20th) and FPPG allowed to QBs (20th). This profiles as a plus matchup that Rodgers should be able to take advantage of, and it also bodes well for him that his entire arsenal of weapons is (likely) healthy heading into the weekend. View Rodgers as a solid QB1, but his ceiling has been lowered slightly this year due to the effectiveness of the run game in the red zone. The biggest concern with starting Rodgers against the Redskins is that they take a big lead and he isn’t needed much for the win. But he should be able to rack up a solid stat line regardless.
Davante Adams (auto-start) was able to cash in last week as well, hitting on two scores despite not getting over 100 receiving yards. Adams is a must start in any league and any format, and the matchup against the Redskins (17th against WRs) doesn’t do anything to move the needle. Expect a solid, potentially blow-up type performance out of Adams this week if the Redskins are able to at all keep pace offensively. Allen Lazard (volume downgrade), has a big day of his own on Sunday, going for 103 yards and a TD, despite only catching 3 passes. The volume is an indicator that this type of production shouldn’t be expected again this week, and while Washington is vulnerable to the pass, they aren’t enough of a sieve to make Lazard a trustworthy streamer. He’s a dart-throw WR4 in hopes of a long TD, and would be a very risky fantasy playoff dice roll. Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Geronimo Allison continue to be non-factors, so leave them on waivers in all leagues. Jimmy Graham isn’t operating at 100%, and hasn’t had a usable stat line in weeks, do not even consider him this week.
RB Breakdown
The up and down season from Aaron Jones (upgrade) continues to confound all potential logic. Even in positive game-script and seemingly run-heavy weather conditions, Jones was unable to put anything of note together on his 15 touches. Jamaal Williams (upgrade PPR) didn’t do much more with his 14 touches, but at least salvaged his day with a decent receiving line. The Redskins are not a stout rush defense - 19th run DVOA and 12th most FPPG to RBs - and the position as home favorites make both Packers’ RBs attractive targets. Jones is the superior play due to his game breaking ability and role as the goal-line back, but Williams is an intriguing flex in PPR leagues. Treat Jones as a borderline RB1, just be aware he isn’t very trustworthy at this point. This feels like a spot he would drop 100+ and 1-2 TDs, but we just never know.
Score Prediction: Packers 28, Redskins 14

Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-9.5)

Broncos ATS: 7-5-0 Texans ATS: 6-6-0
Projected Team Totals: Broncos 16 Texans 25.5

Broncos

Opp (HOU) Pass DVOA: #25
Opp (HOU) Run DVOA: #15
Injuries to Watch DEF (HOU): CB Gareon Conley (Q) CB Bradley Roby (Q) LB Brennan Scarlett (Q) DE Carlos Watkins (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (DEN): OG Ron Leary (Q) RB Royce Freeman (Q) OL Connor McGovern (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Courtland Sutton (24%) Noah Fant (21%) Tim Patrick (14%) Jeff Heuerman (10%) Phillip Lindsay (9%) Royce Freeman (7%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Phillip Lindsay (44%, 20, 3) Royce Freeman (56%, 9, 4)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Broncos turned to rookie Drew Lock (downgrade) last week, and while his individual stats weren’t impressive, he was able to pull out a surprising win against the reeling Chargers. Lock is not on anyone’s fantasy radar at this point, least of all managers that were able to get into fantasy playoffs, so we will instead focus on how he impacts the pass-catchers in this offense.
Lock’s top target was no surprise, as Courtland Sutton (volume upgrade) continues to dominate targets in Denver. Sutton’s success was somewhat of a surprise, as he was able to account for over half of Lock’s yardage, and both of his TDs. Sutton has earned auto-start status at this point, and a matchup with the Texans helps to ease concerns around his QB play. Keep him in all lineups and hope that Lock improves heading into his second start so that the Texans aren’t able to simply double or triple cover Sutton to shut down the entire offense. Consider him a solid WR2 at this point. No other pass catcher in this offense is trustworthy in fantasy, especially with Lock at the helm, so avoid any of the names that aren’t Sutton. Noah Fant and Tim Patrick are interesting dynasty stashes, but shouldn’t be anywhere near fantasy lineups this week.
RB Breakdown
Second year RBs Phillip Lindsay and Royce Freeman continue to see an almost exact 50-50% snap split, but Lindsay has consistently seen more carries over the last 6-8 weeks. That was the case again last week as he out-touched Freeman 20-9. That has rendered Freeman completely unusable in fantasy, while Lindsay has been unable to backup his breakout rookie year. Lindsay gets the necessary volume to be in the RB2 range, but the struggles at QB, on the O-Line, and at creating scoring chances overall, have held him back significantly. Consider him a decent RB2 this week with a plus matchup - the Texans have given up the 4th most FPPG to RBs. If you are at all shallow at RB, or start 3 every week, Lindsay should likely be in your lineup.

Texans

Opp (DEN) Pass DVOA: #17
Opp (DEN) Run DVOA: #10
Injuries to Watch DEF (DEN): LB Von Miller (Q) LB Malik Reed (Q) S Will Parks (Q) LB Jeremiah Attaochu (Q) LB Alexander Johnson (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (HOU): WR Will Fuller (Q)
Key WCB matchups: DeAndre Hopkins vs. Chris Harris Jr. (Rotoworld)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): DeAndre Hopkins (34%) Will Fuller (23%) Kenny Stills (14%) Duke Johnson (12%) Darren Fells (11%) Jordan Akins (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Duke Johnson (68%, 14, 6) Carlos Hyde (38%, 11, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Texans became the second team to expose some of the weaknesses of the Patriots during their SNF win. Deshaun Watson (auto-start) was impressive again even facing a tough matchup, and should be in all lineups again this week. The Broncos give up the 5th fewest FPPG to QBs on the season, but have the 17th ranked pass defense by DVOA. Watson is a set and forget. Stud WR DeAndre Hopkins will likely face shadow coverage from the impressive Chris Harris Jr., but it’s virtually impossible to bench Nuk in any situation, even in a tough matchup like this one.
The bigger question is what to do with the Texans’ secondary receiving options. Will Fuller (upgrade) will likely be the beneficiary of Harris’ coverage on Nuk, as he will instead draw Isaac Yiadom. The Broncos have been stout against the pass this season, but over the past 4 weeks they are allowing the 11th most FPPG to WRs. Fuller is a risky play this week, as we’ve seen his floor is a goose-egg. He does has blow-up potential in a plus individual matchup. Consider him a risk-reward WR3 that has a solid shot at paying off. Kenny Stills (downgrade) did well last week against the Patriots, and is in play as a low-end WR3 as well, but temper expectations as the Broncos are allowing the fewest FPPG to slot-wideouts this year. He would be a dice-roll in the first week of fantasy playoffs and might be too risky of a play.Darren Fells just continues to produce at the TE position, snagging another TD last week. The Broncos are middle of the pack at defending the position, and Fells lack of volume is concerning, so he’s no more than a TD-dependent TE2.
RB Breakdown
The Texans run-game struggled against the Patriots, but pass-catching back Duke Johnson was able to create some big plays through the air. He cashed in a TD on a perfect option route in the first quarter. This week should be somewhat easier on the ground, and the game-script is projected to be favorable with the Texans as huge home favorites. That would make Carlos Hyde (upgrade standard) a more attractive play, although he is tough to trust in lineups due to his low floor and dependency on rushing TDs. Consider Hyde a mid-tier RB2 in standard leagues with a slight downgrade in PPR leagues. Johnson is an intriguing flex in PPR leagues, but a tough sell in standard leagues as his weekly touch total cannot be trusted. Ultimately both are risky, but we like Hyde slightly more this week for matchup and game-flow reasons.
Score Prediction: Texans 27, Broncos 13

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3)

49ers ATS: 7-4-1 Saints ATS: 8-4-0
Projected Team Totals: 49ers 20.5 Saints 23.5

49ers

Opp (NO) Pass DVOA: #9
Opp (NO) Run DVOA: #6
Injuries to Watch DEF (NO): LB Kiki Alonso (D) LB A.J. Klein (D)
Injuries to Watch OFF (SF): WR Dante Pettis (D) TE George Kittle (Q) OT Joe Staley (Q)
Key WCB matchups: Emmanuel Sanders vs. Marshon Lattimore, Deebo Samuel vs. Eli Apple (not full projected shadow matchups, ESPN)
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): George Kittle (25%) Deebo Samuel (19%) Emmanuel Sanders (16%) Ross Dwelley (12%) Kendrick Bourne (11%) Tevin Coleman (10%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Raheem Mostert (74%, 21, 2) Tevin Coleman (18%, 6, 1)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Niners came up just short against the Ravens last week, and will get no reprieve heading into Week 14’s massive matchup against the Saints. SF will be operating on a short week, but are almost entirely back to full health offensively, so that isn’t much of a concern. Jimmy Garappolo (downgrade) didn’t produce much in terms of fantasy value last week, as it was the running game and the defense that kept the Niners in the game. The Saints are tough against the pass - 9th best DVOA on the season - but have been somewhat vulnerable to QBs (10th most FPPG allowed). It would be unwise to trust Jimmy G for as more than a mid-tier QB2, but the Saints have one of the few offenses that could force the Niners into a rare shootout. Still, he’s not a recommended start this week.
With Garoppolo struggling last week, no one was able to stand out in the passing game, although that was due in part to the rainy conditions and stout secondary of the Ravens. George Kittle (auto-start) remains the top target in this offense, and he remains an elite TE1 whenever healthy as he’s capable of a big week at any time. Deebo Samuel did snag a TD on a 4th down conversion in the first half, and his recent run of productive games has him firmly on the WR3 radar. It appears that Emmanuel Sanders (downgrade) is more likely to see Marshon Lattimore in shadow coverage, but Lattimore typically doesn’t travel to the slot, so that won’t be a full shadow matchup. Samuel should see a lot of Eli Apple, and while neither player has been dominant, Lattimore has shown flashes again this year of true shut down ability. Downgrade Sanders slightly into WR3/4 territory, but keep Samuel in the WR3 range. Both are risky starts for fantasy playoffs, but Deebo seems like the safer bet with a bit more upside at this point.
RB Breakdown
The Niners backfield production continues to elude most owners lineups, as last week it was Raheem Mostert who broke out for a big day. Mostert needs to be taken seriously as a fantasy option for the first week of the playoffs. He turned 21 touches into more than 150 total yards last week, and his 74% snap share dwarfed that of “starter” Tevin Coleman (volume downgrade). At this point, it’s impossible to predict what we will see this week. Plus, the Saints allow the 4th fewest FPPG to RBs on the season, so it’s a tough matchup on-paper. Mostert has probably earned low-mid RB2 status heading into the difficult matchup, whereas Coleman simply cannot be trusted in lineups in a must-win week. Matt Breida returned to full practice this week, so his likely return muddies the waters even further. It would likely be best to avoid the situation entirely in a tough matchup and a three-way timeshare, but Mostert is the favorite for fantasy value this week. It’s just tough to trust it.

Saints

Opp (SF) Pass DVOA: #1
Opp (SF) Run DVOA: #14
Injuries to Watch DEF (SF): S Jaquiski Tartt (D) DT Jullian Taylor (D) DE Dee Ford (Q) DT D.J. Jones (Q) CB Richard Sherman (Q)
Injuries to Watch OFF (NO): OG Andrus Peat (D) OT Terron Armstead (Q) RB Zach Line (Q)
Key WCB matchups: None
Relevant Target Share %’s (Last 6 Weeks): Michael Thomas (28%) Alvin Kamara (25%) Jared Cook (17%) Latavius Murray (9%) Ted Ginn (8%)
RB Snap %/Touches/Targets Week 13: Alvin Kamara (82%, 15, 8) Latavius Murray (26%, 4, 0)
QB/WTE Breakdown
The Saints disappointed slightly against the Falcons, and Drew Brees (downgrade) threw for only 184 yards and 1 TD despite leading them to a 26-18 win. The matchup against the Niners is going to be much more challenging. They have the top ranked pass defense by DVOA and have given up the second fewest FPPG to QBs on the season. Brees deserves to be downgraded into the high-end QB2 range, and owners would do well to heavily consider an alternative option as they head into playoffs.
Currently threatening the NFL single season reception record, Michael Thomas (auto-start) is simply an unstoppable force. Keep him locked in as a high-end WR1, even in the tough matchup, as he can rack up points in so many ways and will be leaned on heavily if the Saints are to get a crucial home victory here. Ted Ginn and Tre’Quan Smith, however, should be avoided at all costs. Jared Cook is on a nice stretch of play the past few weeks, but the Niners are tough against TEs as well - fewest FPPG to the position. Cook should be viewed as more of a low-end TE1 this week, but is tough to bench with how well he’s playing and the lack of depth at the position. He likely needs to be in your playoff lineup, as he has been seeing a lot of high-quality/high-value targets of late.
RB Breakdown
It was another “floor” type week for Alvin Kamara (auto-start) last week, as he was under 100 total yards with no TDs for the fifth time this year. He has put together a decent year, but his fantasy lines have been below-average by his standards. Obviously., he needs to be in lineups again this week, even in a tough matchup, as he is capable of blowing up in any game and will score double digits even in his down weeks. Latavius Murray (downgrade) is much less attractive considering his recent lack of volume and the fact the 49ers are so stout defensively. He’s no more than a TD-dependent RB3/flex in standard leagues, and is unplayable in PPR leagues.
Score Prediction: Niners 21, Saints 17

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Part 3 of 3

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GLOSSARY

Los Angeles Chargers (-3) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Chargers

Jaguars

*Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-3) *

Chiefs

Patriots

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Steelers

Cardinals

Tennessee Titans (-2.5) at Oakland Raiders

Titans

RB Breakdown

Raiders

Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams

Seahawks

Rams

New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5)

Giants

Eagles

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GLOSSARY

Dallas Cowboys (-3) at Chicago Bears

Cowboys

Bears

Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at Buffalo Bills

Ravens

Bills

Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers (-13)

Redskins

Packers

Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (-9.5)

Broncos

Texans

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3)

49ers

Saints

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